Hey everyone,
This long weekend is throwing me off. But gives me more time to do the analyses I want, including BA, QQQ and SPY.
Thought I would kick it off with BA because its looking pretty interesting!
So let's get into it.
Recap: BA started the week strong, made me a little nervous with my weekly swing target of 154 but then it quickly reversed and we ended up surpassing my target of 154. Trust the math, as they say ;).
So what about next week?
Let's break it down.
Volume:
Selling volume picked up on the 30th, with a loss of around 30% of buyers. Some buyers stepped in the following day, but it quickly lead to sell off with BA losing 25% of its buyers on Friday.
The average Buyer to Seller Ratio (14 day) over last week was 1.12. Still quite a bit of buying compared to the previous weeks average of 1.02.
Technicals and chart:
Boeing closed with 14 day Stochastic of 4.34, RSI of 30.34 and Z-Score of -2.00.
On the 1 hour it looks like BA could be going for a little double bottom. We have an overhead gap that is really reachable at 159. Directly above this gap we have overhead resistance. Here is the bigger picture of this overhead resistance:
The volume ratio and % change, taking into account the chart itself, lead me to think that we could actually see a bit of a bounce next week. What kind of is backing this is, in doing a probability assessment, BA is straddling in the middle of bullishness and bearishness. I find this very interesting and it leads me to believe that BA isn't quite ready to tank.
Also, when I calculate swing targets over the next 4 days, I get the following:
Bullish Target: 159
Bearish Target: 142
I find the bullish target extremely interesting because this also corresponds with the gap and is really close to that overhead resistance.
My opinion/ my hope and dream is to see BA bounce to fill that gap and then reject that overhead resistance. If BA comes up and rejects that overhead resistance, its a no brainer short. If it tanks from here, its completely possible and fine, its just a little messy.
Snap Shot in Tuesday Trading Day:
Based on the probability assessment, the technicals and the chart, I can see the trading day progressing something like this:
- Gap down (highest probability) where we see a price in the low 151 range.
- It is possible we see 149, but its more likely we stop around 151/150.
- From there, we likely could get a bounce and bring us to 152 - 153 range.
- I would suspect, if my hypothesis is correct, we could see BA continue to bounce a bit into the week before making another leg down.
Summary:
- Tuesday, look for a bounce off 151 (if this is broken, look for a bounce at 150) to bring us back up to 152 and 153.
- If BA is able to sustain this levels, we can assume that is will likely be gunning for a gap fill at 159, which should be your swing target.
- If BA is unable to bounce and it breaks below 149, then chances are we will be heading for the 142 calculated bearish target.
Just my thoughts!
Leave your comments/questions and critiques below.
Thanks for reading!
This long weekend is throwing me off. But gives me more time to do the analyses I want, including BA, QQQ and SPY.
Thought I would kick it off with BA because its looking pretty interesting!
So let's get into it.
Recap: BA started the week strong, made me a little nervous with my weekly swing target of 154 but then it quickly reversed and we ended up surpassing my target of 154. Trust the math, as they say ;).
So what about next week?
Let's break it down.
Volume:
Selling volume picked up on the 30th, with a loss of around 30% of buyers. Some buyers stepped in the following day, but it quickly lead to sell off with BA losing 25% of its buyers on Friday.
The average Buyer to Seller Ratio (14 day) over last week was 1.12. Still quite a bit of buying compared to the previous weeks average of 1.02.
Technicals and chart:
Boeing closed with 14 day Stochastic of 4.34, RSI of 30.34 and Z-Score of -2.00.
On the 1 hour it looks like BA could be going for a little double bottom. We have an overhead gap that is really reachable at 159. Directly above this gap we have overhead resistance. Here is the bigger picture of this overhead resistance:
The volume ratio and % change, taking into account the chart itself, lead me to think that we could actually see a bit of a bounce next week. What kind of is backing this is, in doing a probability assessment, BA is straddling in the middle of bullishness and bearishness. I find this very interesting and it leads me to believe that BA isn't quite ready to tank.
Also, when I calculate swing targets over the next 4 days, I get the following:
Bullish Target: 159
Bearish Target: 142
I find the bullish target extremely interesting because this also corresponds with the gap and is really close to that overhead resistance.
My opinion/ my hope and dream is to see BA bounce to fill that gap and then reject that overhead resistance. If BA comes up and rejects that overhead resistance, its a no brainer short. If it tanks from here, its completely possible and fine, its just a little messy.
Snap Shot in Tuesday Trading Day:
Based on the probability assessment, the technicals and the chart, I can see the trading day progressing something like this:
- Gap down (highest probability) where we see a price in the low 151 range.
- It is possible we see 149, but its more likely we stop around 151/150.
- From there, we likely could get a bounce and bring us to 152 - 153 range.
- I would suspect, if my hypothesis is correct, we could see BA continue to bounce a bit into the week before making another leg down.
Summary:
- Tuesday, look for a bounce off 151 (if this is broken, look for a bounce at 150) to bring us back up to 152 and 153.
- If BA is able to sustain this levels, we can assume that is will likely be gunning for a gap fill at 159, which should be your swing target.
- If BA is unable to bounce and it breaks below 149, then chances are we will be heading for the 142 calculated bearish target.
Just my thoughts!
Leave your comments/questions and critiques below.
Thanks for reading!
Comment:
In light of the circumstances, my bounce theory is technically invalidated. :-(
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