So is QQQ an immediate short?
Let's get into the deets:
The market took a massive dive Friday to begin a fairly aggressive bounce into close. Looking at the chart, QQQ looks like a bear flag and like it is just about to tank into oblivion. But looking at the stats and the probabilities paints a bit of a different story.
There is actually a really high probability that we gap up on Tuesday. The probability we gap up (Defined as opening greater than our close price on Friday) is 0.067. The probability that we gap down, or open below our close price on Friday is only 0.011. So I trust this is good news for the very select few of us who are swinging long into Tuesday.
But what prices should we anticipate?
Well, there is a very high probability we see 298 again and a so so chance we could see 300, but not as likely.
Calculated weekly swing targets this week are:
Bullish: 303
Bearish: 287
If we look at the chart you will see we have that ascending resistance that QQQ broke down from, attempted to reclaim and then broke down from it again. Here is the bigger picture of that resistance line:
That line sits around 301.
Because of this, I don't personally have 303 as a swing target. But it is possible that QQQ does re-attempt to break back over this resistance only to fail later.
I will re-scale in short (I took my profits already on my previous swing position) around this level (300-301). Provided we make it of course, but I do believe we will.
IF QQQ breaks over this support and holds, well that would be very interesting. But let's cross that bridge if and/or when that time comes. Until then, over-arching bias is VERY short term bullish, long term bearish.
Immediate targets for me on Tuesday are:
1. 298.80 and then
2. 300.15
These are based on calculated targets.
If QQQ is going to re-test this resistance, then the next target would be:
3. 301 range.
If QQQ decides to sell on Tuesday and doesn't show any interest in bouncing, then the calculated bearish targets are:
1. 292.13
2. 290.52
3. 288.91.
Look for these targets if QQQ fails to test 298.
I should add that A larger bounce is possible and isn't necessarily out of the question (and it is something that I am considering and contemplating). The only thing that is making me weary of delving into this possibility is that overhead resistance. I am honestly expecting rejection here but the current technicals do favour a bit of a more of a profound bounce. But if we break over this resistance, I will update accordingly.
That's it, those are my thoughts.
Leave your comments/questions and critiques below!
Trade safe everyone and enjoy the rest of your long weekend.
Let's get into the deets:
The market took a massive dive Friday to begin a fairly aggressive bounce into close. Looking at the chart, QQQ looks like a bear flag and like it is just about to tank into oblivion. But looking at the stats and the probabilities paints a bit of a different story.
There is actually a really high probability that we gap up on Tuesday. The probability we gap up (Defined as opening greater than our close price on Friday) is 0.067. The probability that we gap down, or open below our close price on Friday is only 0.011. So I trust this is good news for the very select few of us who are swinging long into Tuesday.
But what prices should we anticipate?
Well, there is a very high probability we see 298 again and a so so chance we could see 300, but not as likely.
Calculated weekly swing targets this week are:
Bullish: 303
Bearish: 287
If we look at the chart you will see we have that ascending resistance that QQQ broke down from, attempted to reclaim and then broke down from it again. Here is the bigger picture of that resistance line:
That line sits around 301.
Because of this, I don't personally have 303 as a swing target. But it is possible that QQQ does re-attempt to break back over this resistance only to fail later.
I will re-scale in short (I took my profits already on my previous swing position) around this level (300-301). Provided we make it of course, but I do believe we will.
IF QQQ breaks over this support and holds, well that would be very interesting. But let's cross that bridge if and/or when that time comes. Until then, over-arching bias is VERY short term bullish, long term bearish.
Immediate targets for me on Tuesday are:
1. 298.80 and then
2. 300.15
These are based on calculated targets.
If QQQ is going to re-test this resistance, then the next target would be:
3. 301 range.
If QQQ decides to sell on Tuesday and doesn't show any interest in bouncing, then the calculated bearish targets are:
1. 292.13
2. 290.52
3. 288.91.
Look for these targets if QQQ fails to test 298.
I should add that A larger bounce is possible and isn't necessarily out of the question (and it is something that I am considering and contemplating). The only thing that is making me weary of delving into this possibility is that overhead resistance. I am honestly expecting rejection here but the current technicals do favour a bit of a more of a profound bounce. But if we break over this resistance, I will update accordingly.
That's it, those are my thoughts.
Leave your comments/questions and critiques below!
Trade safe everyone and enjoy the rest of your long weekend.
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