Boeing tailspin and crash averted? Maybe a time to buy?
BA
With a lot of negative press, a bullish outlook is pretty contradictory. So while my outlook is bullish, please trade with caution. I believe it has great upside potential...for the time being.
Analysis is based on simplified Smart Money Trading Concepts.
On the Weekly time frame, we have had 2 breaks of structure recently.
The first at 192.41 to the downside. Which was more likely an LQ sweep on a higher time frame. Not the cleanest but not all price action is.
The second at $243.10 to the upside.
In the current trading range $176.25 to $267.54, we are retracing back to the daily change of character. Which is the point in which demand over powered supply and I believe we'll close the gap at $197.26 at which point the Bulls will take charge.
***Any break and close below $176.25 will invalidate this trade idea. ***
If you are interested in a free course on how I analyze the markets, let me know in the comments.
If you are trading stock CFDs or the underlying ticker :
4 positions between the 62% pullback($210.94) and the 89% pullback($186.29) would be ideal.
Exits:
1st = $267.54
2nd = $292.19
3rd = $324.14
4th = $358.83
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If you are trading stock options:
NO less than a 6 month expiration!
Suggestion:
20th September Expiration
Buy OTM CALLS between $255-$260
ideally 1-3 positions
If you need an options calculator, I suggest using: https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/calculator/short-put.html
Exits:
(STRIKE price)
1st = $292.19
2nd =$324.14
3rd= 358.83
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Premium - Discount Zones Explained:
In Bullish market structure/bias ---> Buy below the 50% of a fibo retracement
**Ideally between 62% to 89%**
In Bearish market structure/bias--> Sell above the 50% of a fibo retracement
**Ideally between 62% to 89%**
***Please note: the fibo retracement would be flipped in bearish market structure and the 62%-89% zones would be in the upper 50% of the fibo retracement***
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If you are interested in a free course on how I analyze the markets, let me know in the comments.
THERE IS NO CHARGE FOR AWESOMENESS
What does this mean?
Answer: Any break out trader to the down side at those lows, will soon be buying back their shorts for a loss when price breaks long above 217.59. Any institutional trader that saw that is likely buying in at favorable prices (70.5% off of the current Daily swing trading range of 176.25 (Strong Low) and $267.54 (Weak High).
Expectations over the next couple to few weeks:
With this daily liquidity sweep (note by the green line with a $ sign) and close back in the the current internal pull back range of 199.50 - 217.59, I expect Daily order flow to change from Bearish back to Bullish this week or next. At the time of writing this update, the milestone marker in respect to price to verify this would a break and close above $217.59 on the daily time frame.
With that being said, If you are in longs already below the 50% of the fibo retracement, you are in a great position.
Even better if you bought between $210.894- $203.18