20 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - 45220 has to be taken out
BankNifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, banknifty has fallen only 0.98% ~ 451pts. Today’s fall was much higher than that ~ 595pts. Most importantly we had a top like formation that got completed this week. And since Banks turn first - we can always consider it as a leading indicator during trend reversals.
BankNifty Today Analysis
The opening 5mts candle low and the final candle wick high is at the same level. I was trading banknifty more today since it was expiry and the jumps in OTM premiums were more than unusual. Only CALL options had a jump in premiums, PUT options premium did not swing that much.
Even though we had a down day, a fall of 595pts is not at all that severe. If its a dress rehearsal for the events to come - then I totally agree. A look at the PE prices today told me the market participants are not that fearful - if yes we should have seen huge premium spikes.
The 1hr chart is quite interesting. The gap down has created an island day right in between 45220 and 45831. For further downward move we need that support to be taken out in tomorrow’s morning session. I wish to go with a bearish stance and change it to neutral only if banknifty is unable to breach 45220 tomorrow. Also if 45220 is taken out - then 44906 support level will be in play and I assume an avalanche can start.
Between the last expiry and today, banknifty has fallen only 0.98% ~ 451pts. Today’s fall was much higher than that ~ 595pts. Most importantly we had a top like formation that got completed this week. And since Banks turn first - we can always consider it as a leading indicator during trend reversals.
BankNifty Today Analysis
The opening 5mts candle low and the final candle wick high is at the same level. I was trading banknifty more today since it was expiry and the jumps in OTM premiums were more than unusual. Only CALL options had a jump in premiums, PUT options premium did not swing that much.
Even though we had a down day, a fall of 595pts is not at all that severe. If its a dress rehearsal for the events to come - then I totally agree. A look at the PE prices today told me the market participants are not that fearful - if yes we should have seen huge premium spikes.
The 1hr chart is quite interesting. The gap down has created an island day right in between 45220 and 45831. For further downward move we need that support to be taken out in tomorrow’s morning session. I wish to go with a bearish stance and change it to neutral only if banknifty is unable to breach 45220 tomorrow. Also if 45220 is taken out - then 44906 support level will be in play and I assume an avalanche can start.
