RED ALERT - SLEEPING GIANT - Big Tech - $BB $BB.CA Blackberry
Update to Feb. 6 Idea. Now I am watching this more closely, and will be playing this with options.
I was first interested by this ticker around Jan.18, when I first traded it based on the BANG stocks momentum and technicals.. but as I observed and gathered more info, the big picture became more clear to me.
Speculation:
- At the start of new bubbles, CapEx juniors and smallcaps get filled very quickly. If we make a comparison to precious metals miners... this company is a first wave major, not a second wave junior.
- The BANG hype provided this company with all the capital they needed.
- Inst. ownership is only 56.60%, shares float is 555.30M... fairly easy to manipulate with high float.
- Other high growth companies that institutes are betting on, such as PSTG or AMBA have 90%+ inst. ownership.
- I noticed that major players like JPM, MS, WFC, Citi, Two Sigma, Cohen's Point72, Jane Street were increasing stake substantially last quarter. Of course, Citadel has a large options position as well.
- What if this short attacking was for the big players to accumulate, and shake out retail?
- I suspect that Citadel is playing MM for JPM, Citi and Point72, just from past experiences.
FA:
- Mcap: 6.75B. SEVERELY undervalued compared to AMZN.
- Baidu partnership, I think Baidu is the future king of tech.
- Huge PR and production push.
Key products:
- QNX: embedded OS with a security focus.
- IVY: cloud platform for vehicles (think EV and space market).
- AtHoc and SecuSUITE: secure communication system. Governments are still using Zoom and Teams, we need better.
- When you look at an old company, evidence that they can survive hard times and failure, and come back from it is one of the best indicators there are for long term success.
Verdict: This is a future Canadian Titan, along with Shopify. You must buy. 50B valuation at the minimum.
TA:
- 0.236 Fib level of wave 3 and 4H 50 EMA acting as support.
- MACD turning bullish on 4H timeframe, looks to be converging on 1D, and is diverging on 1M... VERY bullish.
- 30min timeframe resistance broke out:
- Volume fading on the downtrend, picking up on the breakout.
- 2x Morning Star reversals gives me high confidence in bullish trend.
- I already have a long position, but will be adding ASAP.
QA:
- Skew turning bullish.
- I chart my subwaves in accordance with OpEx nowadays. That's simply the game now, get used to it.
- The short interest is not high, but make no mistake, that's because the MM is selling with the high float, and putting up put walls. Bulls want to break the call wall and trigger gamma squeezing if they want to break out... Else just play the OpEx. Gamma hedging evidence will be in comments. This is going up, but we are playing against Citadel and co. Not easy.
- There is a bearish scenario: 270k Open Interest on 2/19 options with a max pain of 11.50. Safe bet would be to let 2/19 options expire before entry. This could create a bullish double bottom.
- However, there is a fairly decent gamma ramp for 12, 13, 14, 15, and if 15 is cleared, up to 20 would be smooth sailing for next week.
Strategy:
- Have capital ready for a double bottom test at 11.50
- TP1: 24
- TP2: 30.66
- Wave 5 PT: 42
- SL: 6.39 (Let's not make the SL too obvious on highly manipulated stocks... Stop loss hunting exists)
- RRR: 2.75
- Timeframe: 42 days
- Remember to take profits on the way up... volatile stocks will test supports on the way up!
Blackberry to the moon!
I was first interested by this ticker around Jan.18, when I first traded it based on the BANG stocks momentum and technicals.. but as I observed and gathered more info, the big picture became more clear to me.
Speculation:
- At the start of new bubbles, CapEx juniors and smallcaps get filled very quickly. If we make a comparison to precious metals miners... this company is a first wave major, not a second wave junior.
- The BANG hype provided this company with all the capital they needed.
- Inst. ownership is only 56.60%, shares float is 555.30M... fairly easy to manipulate with high float.
- Other high growth companies that institutes are betting on, such as PSTG or AMBA have 90%+ inst. ownership.
- I noticed that major players like JPM, MS, WFC, Citi, Two Sigma, Cohen's Point72, Jane Street were increasing stake substantially last quarter. Of course, Citadel has a large options position as well.
- What if this short attacking was for the big players to accumulate, and shake out retail?
- I suspect that Citadel is playing MM for JPM, Citi and Point72, just from past experiences.
FA:
- Mcap: 6.75B. SEVERELY undervalued compared to AMZN.
- Baidu partnership, I think Baidu is the future king of tech.
- Huge PR and production push.
Key products:
- QNX: embedded OS with a security focus.
- IVY: cloud platform for vehicles (think EV and space market).
- AtHoc and SecuSUITE: secure communication system. Governments are still using Zoom and Teams, we need better.
- When you look at an old company, evidence that they can survive hard times and failure, and come back from it is one of the best indicators there are for long term success.
Verdict: This is a future Canadian Titan, along with Shopify. You must buy. 50B valuation at the minimum.
TA:
- 0.236 Fib level of wave 3 and 4H 50 EMA acting as support.
- MACD turning bullish on 4H timeframe, looks to be converging on 1D, and is diverging on 1M... VERY bullish.
- 30min timeframe resistance broke out:
- 2x Morning Star reversals gives me high confidence in bullish trend.
- I already have a long position, but will be adding ASAP.
QA:
- Skew turning bullish.
- I chart my subwaves in accordance with OpEx nowadays. That's simply the game now, get used to it.
- The short interest is not high, but make no mistake, that's because the MM is selling with the high float, and putting up put walls. Bulls want to break the call wall and trigger gamma squeezing if they want to break out... Else just play the OpEx. Gamma hedging evidence will be in comments. This is going up, but we are playing against Citadel and co. Not easy.
- There is a bearish scenario: 270k Open Interest on 2/19 options with a max pain of 11.50. Safe bet would be to let 2/19 options expire before entry. This could create a bullish double bottom.
- However, there is a fairly decent gamma ramp for 12, 13, 14, 15, and if 15 is cleared, up to 20 would be smooth sailing for next week.
Strategy:
- Have capital ready for a double bottom test at 11.50
- TP1: 24
- TP2: 30.66
- Wave 5 PT: 42
- SL: 6.39 (Let's not make the SL too obvious on highly manipulated stocks... Stop loss hunting exists)
- RRR: 2.75
- Timeframe: 42 days
- Remember to take profits on the way up... volatile stocks will test supports on the way up!
Blackberry to the moon!
Comment:
Add Amazon AWS, Baidu EV, MSFT, US Airforce partnerships.
Comment:
An interesting observation:
Up until around Feb. 2, 2021, several tickers that I am interested in have been tracking each other:
BB, AMC, NOK, GME (BANG), VIX, PLTR, while they have been inversing BTCUSD.
It is likely that these stocks were all a part of a portfolio of some institutions (probably BlackRock), which explains this sort of price action.
Why track VIX, though? Possibly to take advantage of FOMO in high volatility to trap retail, is a guess.
PLTR, BB and NOK are high growth tech stocks, so I imagine they are a part of the same portfolio for many funds as well.
BB, NOK and PLTR are tracking each other very closely indeed... Hopefully PLTR's move is an indicator for BB and NOK.
Does this also signal a pullback in BTCUSD? We will see.
Up until around Feb. 2, 2021, several tickers that I am interested in have been tracking each other:
BB, AMC, NOK, GME (BANG), VIX, PLTR, while they have been inversing BTCUSD.
It is likely that these stocks were all a part of a portfolio of some institutions (probably BlackRock), which explains this sort of price action.
Why track VIX, though? Possibly to take advantage of FOMO in high volatility to trap retail, is a guess.
PLTR, BB and NOK are high growth tech stocks, so I imagine they are a part of the same portfolio for many funds as well.
BB, NOK and PLTR are tracking each other very closely indeed... Hopefully PLTR's move is an indicator for BB and NOK.
Does this also signal a pullback in BTCUSD? We will see.
Comment:
Assigned S Tier Rating
