Chart of the Day 1/3: Avoid Banks, this time is different

As we contemplate the convergence of long-term US rates with that of Europe and Japan as well as the Japanification of the global economy, it is useful think about the potential impact on banks. Yes, low rates are not good for banks and as we have seen in Japan, perpetual low rates does not equate to an increase in velocity of money. That chapter in financial textbooks need to be re-written.

This series of charts will look at the American, European and Japanese banks and this time it is REALLY different. Not in a good way. As you can see, banks are testing long-term post GFC support levels. The key difference is, the last few times the banks tested trend line support, the stocks were oversold. This time, as you can see, banks are overbought on a weekly basis testing long-term trend support.

Whether this is bank-specific or a prelude to the wider trend, the jury is still out. This much I will say, the Americans do not know what they do not know in relation to the Covid-19 situation in the US. For an economy which strength has been measured largely by increases in temporary employment, this is an interesting situation to be in.


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