Here's the Elliot Wave 5 impulse count of the entire history of BTC from 2011 to 2017 top of bull market. After every EW 5 wave impulse there's an ABC corrective wave that happens. This count could be as shown: Bottom of Wave A being $3100, Wave B being 618 retracement of the fib from $20k top to $3.1k bottom, so around $13k and finally the Wave C which typically marks the final capitulation of the entire correction, and this could be somewhere around $1200 - the top of the previous bull market. After this, we then start our true next bull market rally. This is a very plausible scenario. But, who's to say that the other ABC count (white ABC) wasn't the true final correction and now we're experiencing the rebound from capitulation of the C wave and the 5 wave impulse (white) has not already started.
The primary criticism I see to this current rally from perma-bears is that this rally is too fast and it looks nothing like the recovery from 2015 bear market bottom to the 2017 top. My response to this is: So what? There is no iron clad rule that says bull market recoveries need to look like previous rallies.
The primary criticism I see to this current rally from perma-bears is that this rally is too fast and it looks nothing like the recovery from 2015 bear market bottom to the 2017 top. My response to this is: So what? There is no iron clad rule that says bull market recoveries need to look like previous rallies.
Comment:
I've already spoken about Gold and Nikkei showing similar capitulations like BTC did in 2018 but then hard a sharp recovery and then comes back very close to previous lows. This is a very high possibility. I’ve stated before that I’ve never seen any asset or market recover like BTC has, without any proper retraces, and just start a new bull rally. So I always keep this in the back of my mind. But I always keep in mind that I’ve never seen an asset like BTC have the rally like it has multiple times and one that isn’t like any other financial asset.
Comment:
Finally what I'd like to explain is, in this community, we are NEVER blindly bullish or bearish. We evaluate both sides of the situation and play the market on what it’s showing us. And where we are right now is following a fantastic rise in BTC prices and benefiting off it. No one can predict if we’re in the middle of the ABC corrective wave still or the start of a new Elliot Wave impulse. But good thing is, we don’t need to know. Trade the market as is not as you want it to be or what you think the future holds and you will always be happy and never have to worry about being right or wrong. And what the market is showing us is strong signs of bullish momentum not letting up and pushing higher, so I will be trading it as such.
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Historically this EMA has been a clear support or resistance in BTC. And currently in BTC's rally, it has not been tested for well over 3 months. This is an area that does concern me. Healthy markets do need to have healthy retraces and continue stair-step movements. Again- not a rule but probability wise it's better to have movements that are contained with impulsive moves up then followed by a retrace and then another positive move up. This, I would agree could be a point where BTC could come back to and retest at some point. When that point will be, I don't know. But I'll have some cash waiting to catch the price at this level.