For reference, we can see that the last bear market corrected to the candle body of the 2013 bull market. If this bear market did the same thing, we would bottom at about 967. That would equate to a bear market fall of 95%. The last bear market fell 86%, but we did see a bear market correction of 93% in 2011. So, a correction of 95% would not be terribly abnormal given the history of Bitcoin's past bear markets. On the other hand, we have already corrected 84%, which is very close to the 86% correction that was seen into 2015. It is worth noting, however, that the gains of the bull market that led into this bear market were far greater than the previous bull market. So, a deeper correction, in terms of percentage points, would not be a surprise.
Personally, I have found more indicators pointing to more downside, than those that point up. Nevertheless, we're still holding the weekly 200 MA and we have just below that. So, until those levels fall, there is still a chance that we have already bottomed. The only real confirmation that we will get, that the bottom is not in, is a confirmation below the December low and particularly if we close below the weekly 200 MA on a weekly basis.
All of that aside, the market still looks incredibly weak. We have relentless lower highs and lows, a confirmation of the weekly 200 as resistance, and now an enormous forming between the 200 MA and here on the weekly chart. So, things aren't looking too good at the moment. Will this break down? We shall see. Until then, sit back, relax, and stay out of the chop. I've heard that it's a good place to get sliced to pieces, if you know what I mean.
Oh yeah, and for the hyperwave people out there, the fall to 1177 or 966 would complete the hyperwave. So, that's something to consider, if you're into that sort of thing. Farewell, my good friends.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***