Bitcoin's Weekly 200 EMA More Sinister Than The MA! (BLX) (BTC)
We're all so fixated on the weekly 200 MA (in grey,) when it comes to Bitcoin, but have we forgotten about the weekly 200 EMA (in orange?) That price average is telling a very different story. If we look at the weekly 200 EMA (in orange) we can see that it too was held during the last bear market bottom. Yet, when we look at the current market, we have already fallen below it, rallied back to it, and confirmed it as resistance. Regardless of the fact that we are still above the weekly 200 MA, that is a very ominous signal. Furthermore, we can see that price is essentially printing a massive bear flag consolidation, between those two moving averages. So, if we take out the weekly 200 MA (in grey,) and especially the December low, I think there is a very real potential for us to see a devastating fall. There are support levels in the low 2000s, and then around 1800 or so, but such a breakdown could send us all the way to risk to the 1000 region.
For reference, we can see that the last bear market corrected to the candle body of the 2013 bull market. If this bear market did the same thing, we would bottom at about 967. That would equate to a bear market fall of 95%. The last bear market fell 86%, but we did see a bear market correction of 93% in 2011. So, a correction of 95% would not be terribly abnormal given the history of Bitcoin's past bear markets. On the other hand, we have already corrected 84%, which is very close to the 86% correction that was seen into 2015. It is worth noting, however, that the gains of the bull market that led into this bear market were far greater than the previous bull market. So, a deeper correction, in terms of percentage points, would not be a surprise.
Personally, I have found more indicators pointing to more downside, than those that point up. Nevertheless, we're still holding the weekly 200 MA and we have double bottom just below that. So, until those levels fall, there is still a chance that we have already bottomed. The only real confirmation that we will get, that the bottom is not in, is a confirmation below the December low and particularly if we close below the weekly 200 MA on a weekly basis.
All of that aside, the market still looks incredibly weak. We have relentless lower highs and lows, a confirmation of the weekly 200 EMA as resistance, and now an enormous bear flag forming between the 200 MA and EMA here on the weekly chart. So, things aren't looking too good at the moment. Will this bear flag break down? We shall see. Until then, sit back, relax, and stay out of the chop. I've heard that it's a good place to get sliced to pieces, if you know what I mean.
Oh yeah, and for the hyperwave people out there, the fall to 1177 or 966 would complete the hyperwave. So, that's something to consider, if you're into that sort of thing. Farewell, my good friends.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
For reference, we can see that the last bear market corrected to the candle body of the 2013 bull market. If this bear market did the same thing, we would bottom at about 967. That would equate to a bear market fall of 95%. The last bear market fell 86%, but we did see a bear market correction of 93% in 2011. So, a correction of 95% would not be terribly abnormal given the history of Bitcoin's past bear markets. On the other hand, we have already corrected 84%, which is very close to the 86% correction that was seen into 2015. It is worth noting, however, that the gains of the bull market that led into this bear market were far greater than the previous bull market. So, a deeper correction, in terms of percentage points, would not be a surprise.
Personally, I have found more indicators pointing to more downside, than those that point up. Nevertheless, we're still holding the weekly 200 MA and we have double bottom just below that. So, until those levels fall, there is still a chance that we have already bottomed. The only real confirmation that we will get, that the bottom is not in, is a confirmation below the December low and particularly if we close below the weekly 200 MA on a weekly basis.
All of that aside, the market still looks incredibly weak. We have relentless lower highs and lows, a confirmation of the weekly 200 EMA as resistance, and now an enormous bear flag forming between the 200 MA and EMA here on the weekly chart. So, things aren't looking too good at the moment. Will this bear flag break down? We shall see. Until then, sit back, relax, and stay out of the chop. I've heard that it's a good place to get sliced to pieces, if you know what I mean.
Oh yeah, and for the hyperwave people out there, the fall to 1177 or 966 would complete the hyperwave. So, that's something to consider, if you're into that sort of thing. Farewell, my good friends.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-