Structurally we are still in a down trend, lower highs and lower lows. At this point, a higher low has to be put in and from there breaking previous highs (~$10k) OR we see reversal divergence which will confirm the shift in momentum as shown with the green lines from 2014.
Bullish Scenario:
TA (tech analysis):
we have seen a 90% recovery from the price drop mid march. volume is higher than it ever has been since the start of 2019 on recovery.
FA (fundamental analysis): Correlation between BTC and the traditional stockmarket has been noted, DJI & SPX have all recovered in a similar manner from on of the fastest dumps in our lifetimes. The ASX has almost made a FULL recovery from the market dump (Covid-19 curve is flattening in Australia and all job seekers and businesses are receiving stimulus packages from the government). Trump minting the 2 trillion dollars to put back into the economy to prop up the markets and prevent a complete collapse. If DJI and SPX recover similarly to the ASX and the correlation holds with BTC we could see a completely unprecedented bull market during a global catastrophe.
Bearish Scenario:
TA: going lower than $4k here is not out of the question. The volume has not been great in comparison to previous reversals on longer time frames, a lower low with reversal divergence would be a more clear indication of the bottom and we are currently in a downtrend.
FA: A recession has been looming over for years now and the COVID-19 crisis has been a catalyst for this. Unemployment claims in America are in the millions with each week that goes by. People around the globe are locked inside, productivity is being lost, money is not circulating around the economy, 70% of Americans do not have $400 in savings, therefore majority of people will be requiring all the cash they can put together in order to pay for their expenses. Investors WILL derisk in a recession and crypto currency is extremely risky to hold as it is completely speculative still without proper adoption (that being said I do believe in the future of the technology). The prosperity experienced for the duration of our generation's lives so far has made people content and believing that the good times will last forever, people think spending money as they do on useless things is normal. Should there be more blood in the markets and a deeper impact from this crisis, true panic will take over, which it appears to be heading given America's current situation with COVID-19.
If our brick house known as the economy is topples over during a hurricane, when the winds settle, the house will need to be rebuilt brick by brick, millions of people will not be re-employed instantly when COVID-19 passes.
There is nothing more valuable in a market and economy than people's time. The time people have to be productive and profitable for businesses and themselves makes the world go round. Time cannot be produced, however, dollars can. Rising prices without any substance is worrying. The real worth of things will show themselves in due time.
Take care.
Bullish Scenario:
TA (tech analysis):
we have seen a 90% recovery from the price drop mid march. volume is higher than it ever has been since the start of 2019 on recovery.
FA (fundamental analysis): Correlation between BTC and the traditional stockmarket has been noted, DJI & SPX have all recovered in a similar manner from on of the fastest dumps in our lifetimes. The ASX has almost made a FULL recovery from the market dump (Covid-19 curve is flattening in Australia and all job seekers and businesses are receiving stimulus packages from the government). Trump minting the 2 trillion dollars to put back into the economy to prop up the markets and prevent a complete collapse. If DJI and SPX recover similarly to the ASX and the correlation holds with BTC we could see a completely unprecedented bull market during a global catastrophe.
Bearish Scenario:
TA: going lower than $4k here is not out of the question. The volume has not been great in comparison to previous reversals on longer time frames, a lower low with reversal divergence would be a more clear indication of the bottom and we are currently in a downtrend.
FA: A recession has been looming over for years now and the COVID-19 crisis has been a catalyst for this. Unemployment claims in America are in the millions with each week that goes by. People around the globe are locked inside, productivity is being lost, money is not circulating around the economy, 70% of Americans do not have $400 in savings, therefore majority of people will be requiring all the cash they can put together in order to pay for their expenses. Investors WILL derisk in a recession and crypto currency is extremely risky to hold as it is completely speculative still without proper adoption (that being said I do believe in the future of the technology). The prosperity experienced for the duration of our generation's lives so far has made people content and believing that the good times will last forever, people think spending money as they do on useless things is normal. Should there be more blood in the markets and a deeper impact from this crisis, true panic will take over, which it appears to be heading given America's current situation with COVID-19.
If our brick house known as the economy is topples over during a hurricane, when the winds settle, the house will need to be rebuilt brick by brick, millions of people will not be re-employed instantly when COVID-19 passes.
There is nothing more valuable in a market and economy than people's time. The time people have to be productive and profitable for businesses and themselves makes the world go round. Time cannot be produced, however, dollars can. Rising prices without any substance is worrying. The real worth of things will show themselves in due time.
Take care.