Bitcoin Magnitude Changes Part 2

BNC:BLX   Bitcoin Liquid Index
Welcome to Part 2 of the Bitcoin Major Changes!

As in the previous part, we focus on the period between magnitude changes, supplemented by the extent of overflows.

Rising trend line or Parabolic rise?

The increase continued along the rising trend line in the 1st and 2nd orders of magnitude.
There was a parabolic increase in shifts 3, 4, 5.

It looks like the current 6th shift is rising along a rising trend line. If the trend doesn’t break, it’s another sign that it should reach 100K by the week of May 26th.

Previous overflows:

The part marked with a red circle indicates an overflow that completes the scale change. The variance is quite large here.

Shift 1 was followed by a 10% overflow
2nd shift ~ 225%
3rd shift ~ 170%
4th shift ~ 18%
Shift 5 was followed by ~ 100% overflow
6th shift overflow is still a big question.

6, next overflow:

Here I find 2 options likely:
1, we reach 100K and then continue to rise along the rising trend line.
2, we reach 100K, and after a minimal overflow, a few months of correction begins. Then the rise continues to a peak above 100K, which will also be the end of the bull cycle. In my opinion, the latter may be more likely.

Double pump?

From the graph, it can be seen that BTC often produced double pumping. That is, following a relatively short-term rapid rise, a few months of correction, he still had enough strength to form a much higher peak. Such was the rise to 1-2 and the rise to 3-4. It is important to note that this is not about the order of magnitude of 100K being followed closely by the order of magnitude of 100K, but of a peak higher than 100K. This idea is illustrated by the black polka dot section.
If we compare the current rise with the previous ones, this rise is very reminiscent of the early movements of bitcoin. It's been 12 years behind bitcoin.
The behavior of early bitcoin small investors driving the bull market in 2013 is very similar to that of early institutional investors. They, on the other hand, already see bitcoin cycles as predictable in the long run, so they gain exposure more aggressively. This is why the current movement is similar to the early movement of bitcoin. Most institutions that can be said to be conservative will be left out of this cycle. I think the next big bull cycle will be taken by them the most.

Translated with Google Translator

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