Bulls Get Paid & Bears Get Paid — But Pigs Go To Slaughter! BTC
Here's why Bitcoin could rally all the way to around 9500. If we look back at the 2014 chart, on the right, you can see that we are in this same parabolic move that we saw after the inverted head and shoulders at the bottom of the chart. On today's chart to the left, we had the same inverted head and shoulders bottom, and then price entered this parabolic rise. However, if we look at some percentage comparisons, we can see that there could be even more upside potential for Bitcoin.
On the 2015 chart, we can see that price fell 65% from the peak that it printed before the bottom. Similarly, BTC fell 68%, from the high at 10K. So, we can see that the percentage loss from peak to trough on each chart is very similar. If we then assess the low of 2015 to the high printed on the parabolic rise, we can see that it was right at 205%. If we saw an equal rise of 205%, it would put BTC right around 9500, just above the 38.2% retrace for the entire bear market. So, yes, there could definitely be more upside potential, despite how relentless this rise has already been.
HOWEVER, I would definitely be extremely cautious about entering new longs here. The market is WAY overbought, with the RSI currently near 87. If we compare that to the reading seen before the fall in 2015, we can see that the RSI peaked at about 88. So, we are very close to where the 2015 parabolic rise peaked, in terms of the RSI reading. Additionally, there is an epic sell signal building on the NVT. We haven't gotten the signal yet, but when it comes, it will be monumental.
BTC has been showing a bit of hesitation here at the 8000-8500 range, but if we can get above that, I think the rise to 9500 or even 10000 would be extremely quick and unsustainable. There are likely an enormous amount of sell orders sitting up there, and if we reach them, the market will likely enter a long overdue correction. With that said, I wouldn't bet on a rise to 9500, until we see a confirmed breakout above the green horizontal trendline at 8500.
One more thing to keep in mind, is that there is an enormous amount of bullishness, FOMO, greed, and extreme exuberance right now. That's a contrarian indicator people. Remember when we were buying in the 3000s, when many others were bearish? In my view, there could definitely be more upside, but that is entirely dependent on a sustained breakout above 8500. Regardless, the correction will come — and when it does, it's probably going to be more violent than this parabolic rise.
One more thing, isn't it interesting that the NVT (which has never been wrong) was low and later flashing a green buy signal after the parabolic rise of 2015? Yet, today, the NVT is blood red and nowhere near showing a buy signal, while everyone believes that we are entering the next bull market. It's a very interesting comparison. Also, I haven't forgotten that the cyclical market pattern of Bitcoin, suggests that we could see a lower low sometime near October. Although, that does seem unlikely right now. Additionally, Bitcoin has not yet touched the bottom of the rising arch on the log chart. So, those are things that make me question this rally. Either way, it is definitely best to buy and hold the dips — because when we finally take off, we won't be looking back.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
On the 2015 chart, we can see that price fell 65% from the peak that it printed before the bottom. Similarly, BTC fell 68%, from the high at 10K. So, we can see that the percentage loss from peak to trough on each chart is very similar. If we then assess the low of 2015 to the high printed on the parabolic rise, we can see that it was right at 205%. If we saw an equal rise of 205%, it would put BTC right around 9500, just above the 38.2% retrace for the entire bear market. So, yes, there could definitely be more upside potential, despite how relentless this rise has already been.
HOWEVER, I would definitely be extremely cautious about entering new longs here. The market is WAY overbought, with the RSI currently near 87. If we compare that to the reading seen before the fall in 2015, we can see that the RSI peaked at about 88. So, we are very close to where the 2015 parabolic rise peaked, in terms of the RSI reading. Additionally, there is an epic sell signal building on the NVT. We haven't gotten the signal yet, but when it comes, it will be monumental.
BTC has been showing a bit of hesitation here at the 8000-8500 range, but if we can get above that, I think the rise to 9500 or even 10000 would be extremely quick and unsustainable. There are likely an enormous amount of sell orders sitting up there, and if we reach them, the market will likely enter a long overdue correction. With that said, I wouldn't bet on a rise to 9500, until we see a confirmed breakout above the green horizontal trendline at 8500.
One more thing to keep in mind, is that there is an enormous amount of bullishness, FOMO, greed, and extreme exuberance right now. That's a contrarian indicator people. Remember when we were buying in the 3000s, when many others were bearish? In my view, there could definitely be more upside, but that is entirely dependent on a sustained breakout above 8500. Regardless, the correction will come — and when it does, it's probably going to be more violent than this parabolic rise.
One more thing, isn't it interesting that the NVT (which has never been wrong) was low and later flashing a green buy signal after the parabolic rise of 2015? Yet, today, the NVT is blood red and nowhere near showing a buy signal, while everyone believes that we are entering the next bull market. It's a very interesting comparison. Also, I haven't forgotten that the cyclical market pattern of Bitcoin, suggests that we could see a lower low sometime near October. Although, that does seem unlikely right now. Additionally, Bitcoin has not yet touched the bottom of the rising arch on the log chart. So, those are things that make me question this rally. Either way, it is definitely best to buy and hold the dips — because when we finally take off, we won't be looking back.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-