Bitcoin Is Basically Telling Us What Will Happen (BTC) (BLX)
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it.
Looking at the daily chart, we can see that a series of bear flags has been printed, with the most recent price action representing the third bear flag. In previous analyses, I was able to accurately project this decline, by using the first two bear flags. Now that a third flag has formed, there are some important things to note.
When we look at the price action, we can see that the selloff began with a sharp decline, on expanding momentum. That decline has since began to level off, as price moves more in the horizontal direction and less in the vertically down direction. Additionally, the MACD is showing that the once rapidly expanding sell-side momentum is now in a state of sideways to slightly positive consolidation.
Now, where is this happening? Right above my long-time price target of $3000. That is important, because it shows that the market had a big drop, but it's now slowing it's descent, as it approaches the $3000 level. Currently, we are in a bear flag, but if/when it breaks, price will likely be temporarily stabilized by the red trendline. On this BLX chart, it's at $2979. On other charts, I've seen it right around $3000. Regardless, it's the price level that corresponds with the high from June 12th 2017.
So, the fact that the market is slowing just before reaching the $3000 level, tells me that it is likely to attempt a relatively soft test of $3000. From there, we will have to see how price responds to the $3K test, to know what BTC's next moves will be. A failure will obviously open the door to major selling, while a hold has some short upside potential.
Notice on the chart, how closely the 10 EMA (in blue) has been respected during this selloff. Price has been put in check by the 10 EMA on multiple occasions. So, the moment we start to get some closes above the 10 EMA, we are likely going to see a small bounce. However, recent history has proven to us that the most likely overhead resistance, that will stop any major rally attempts, is going to be the 50 EMA (in orange.) On the daily chart, it has acted as major resistance more than any other average, and it has done so on a nearly constant basis. So, until the market shows us something new, we can assume that the 50 EMA will continue to be resistance. So, based on that trading hypothesis, if we assume a rally off of the $3000 level, it could carry BTC up to about $4000 + or - a few hundred, wherever the 50 EMA is at that time. A rally from $3000-$4000 sounds quite attractive. That's a 33% increase. However, I am not interested in it at all. I would much rather wait until it gets to $4000 (IF it gets to $4000) and short that big fat rally. Why? Because this is a powerful bear market. In bear markets, I sell the rallies. In bull markets, I buy the dips. I do that because, in a powerful bear market, the rally to the 50 EMA is not guaranteed. But what IS (nearly) guaranteed, based on recent history, is a profit after shorting a rejection of the 50 EMA. Notice that I said I "rejection." It's possible, but unlikely, that BTC could rally up and surpass the 50 EMA. Obviously, that would not be a rejection, and I would not short. In fact, I would consider going long (depending on how far away overhead resistance was) if BTC was able to hold support on top of the 50 EMA, because that would be a major change — a new, positive, and different development in the progression of BTC. Until then, I will remain a seller of rallies, or high volume breakdowns with expanding momentum.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Looking at the daily chart, we can see that a series of bear flags has been printed, with the most recent price action representing the third bear flag. In previous analyses, I was able to accurately project this decline, by using the first two bear flags. Now that a third flag has formed, there are some important things to note.
When we look at the price action, we can see that the selloff began with a sharp decline, on expanding momentum. That decline has since began to level off, as price moves more in the horizontal direction and less in the vertically down direction. Additionally, the MACD is showing that the once rapidly expanding sell-side momentum is now in a state of sideways to slightly positive consolidation.
Now, where is this happening? Right above my long-time price target of $3000. That is important, because it shows that the market had a big drop, but it's now slowing it's descent, as it approaches the $3000 level. Currently, we are in a bear flag, but if/when it breaks, price will likely be temporarily stabilized by the red trendline. On this BLX chart, it's at $2979. On other charts, I've seen it right around $3000. Regardless, it's the price level that corresponds with the high from June 12th 2017.
So, the fact that the market is slowing just before reaching the $3000 level, tells me that it is likely to attempt a relatively soft test of $3000. From there, we will have to see how price responds to the $3K test, to know what BTC's next moves will be. A failure will obviously open the door to major selling, while a hold has some short upside potential.
Notice on the chart, how closely the 10 EMA (in blue) has been respected during this selloff. Price has been put in check by the 10 EMA on multiple occasions. So, the moment we start to get some closes above the 10 EMA, we are likely going to see a small bounce. However, recent history has proven to us that the most likely overhead resistance, that will stop any major rally attempts, is going to be the 50 EMA (in orange.) On the daily chart, it has acted as major resistance more than any other average, and it has done so on a nearly constant basis. So, until the market shows us something new, we can assume that the 50 EMA will continue to be resistance. So, based on that trading hypothesis, if we assume a rally off of the $3000 level, it could carry BTC up to about $4000 + or - a few hundred, wherever the 50 EMA is at that time. A rally from $3000-$4000 sounds quite attractive. That's a 33% increase. However, I am not interested in it at all. I would much rather wait until it gets to $4000 (IF it gets to $4000) and short that big fat rally. Why? Because this is a powerful bear market. In bear markets, I sell the rallies. In bull markets, I buy the dips. I do that because, in a powerful bear market, the rally to the 50 EMA is not guaranteed. But what IS (nearly) guaranteed, based on recent history, is a profit after shorting a rejection of the 50 EMA. Notice that I said I "rejection." It's possible, but unlikely, that BTC could rally up and surpass the 50 EMA. Obviously, that would not be a rejection, and I would not short. In fact, I would consider going long (depending on how far away overhead resistance was) if BTC was able to hold support on top of the 50 EMA, because that would be a major change — a new, positive, and different development in the progression of BTC. Until then, I will remain a seller of rallies, or high volume breakdowns with expanding momentum.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Comment:
Here's an updated look at the chart. Price is now below the bear flag (although it may morph into a parallel flag) and it has been suppressed by the 10 EMA as anticipated...
