BTC Analysis Sept 28 | Pop before drop?

This pump was unusual from $6500 to $6700, let's dissect it. One reason could be we have multiple quarterly futures expiring tomorrow (Sept 28):

- Okex futures at 8AM UTC
- Bitmex futures at 12PM UTC
- CME futures at 3PM UTC

How this impacts futures:
1) This could be the beginning of a bullish cycle. Future longs on BTC could gearing up for a big run (unlikely but possible)
2) We just got set up for a bigger drop

Let me elaborate on point 2. There are two actors at work here: Whales + Futures Traders. I could see whales someone taking a bunch of longs and taking spot buys from $6120. Last week there was a 1000-2000 BTC buy wall at that level, as per tensor. This whale is creating fomo to get price pushed up to $6700. Move the market up to get people feeling more bullish and positive. Let retailers jump into fomo trades. Sell your BTC into retailer buys. When price reaches bigger resistance levels just open a ton more shorts and start selling/dumping big amounts of BTC. With quarterly futures due tomorrow and COT data from last week already pointing to shorts outweighing longs, someone is trying to meet their settlement short price. I've mentioned this before that I have a feeling Futures traders + Whales work together. The whales profit massively this way + futures traders meet their settlement target. The only people who lose are the retail investors. This could be a completely wild theory but I have good reason and data pointing to it.

That being said, how do I see this playing out with TA. As highlighted in the chart, if we are using the EW wave principle, we are in the midst of wave 5. By EW rules, wave 5 must exceed wave 3, if it does not then this count is invalidated and a new count must be drawn. But for now, let's assume this is how it'll play out. So if wave 5 must exceed wave 3, the next resistance level after wave 3 high is ~$6900-7000. And then I'd foresee a subsequent ABC corrective structure. This is where I could see a break down back to $6120 strong support. Now it is entirely possible the count is wrong and we will simply just be rejected by the top of the cloud at ~$6800 in which case we follow the red arrow with a corrective structure down from there. Regardless, I think tomorrow should be a very interesting day. Keep an eye out as we're also nearing the end of week and more importantly the end of month candle on September 30th. If we close the monthly under $6384, we are still in a macro downtrend.

Comment:

Now I know I have a tendency to be more bearish but let me provide a bullish scenario:
This is a line chart (candle lows accounted) for the last few months. As you can see we are creating small symmetrical triangle forming (white), these have a 54% upside breakout percentage (investopedia + bulkowski stats). You can also see from the low in June marked in red (varies by exchange) we have been consistently creating higher lows. If the symmetrical triangle breaks we must look to the next pattern which is the large descending triangle 60-70% chance of upside breakout. Currently the large descending trend line is around $6900-7000.

Tip: Look for the closing of the weekly and monthly candle on September 30th

Comment:

BTC 4h chart moving as mentioned in my analysis. Down to the previous order block that we exceeded past. Now using $6575 as support, temporarily.

Comment:

Watch for $6575 to turn into resistance. If it does $6466 will be next support tested again. Beyond that $6384 is the next strong support.