jonathanvn

Bitcoin Wrote History Again. Realistic $100k Price Prediction

Long
BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
The FOMO and greed are back... This time it's even better.
Market Cycles are not a fairytale and they do exist and they do repeat themselves. This is just another market cycle happening right now.
Where is this rally headed?

Intro
When you put the whole Bitcoin chart in logarithmic perspective you can see that Bitcoin is slowly growing towards a stable price which will take years to reach.
Bitcoin has been around the longest of all cryptos thus giving us some very useful data to work with.


You can predict the price of the next ATH based on two different factors in this market cycle:
  • Time from Halving to new ATH (in orange on chart).
  • Time it takes from previous ATH to new ATH (in green on chart).

Below I will explain my findings, my research of the 2 theories and my realistic expectations and price predictions which I calculated based off reliable data of the past.

From Halving To New ATH: $120k ATH (The one I use)
So as we know, every 4 years a BTC Halving happens whereby the reward miners get for verifying transactions is cut in half. Resulting in deflation over time and slowly growing towards a max supply of 21 million BTC . This max supply is estimated to be reached around 2140. More info on Halvings and what it is: https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

With this concept in mind there will always be less and less newer Bitcoins coming into circulation. BTC is growing in institutions interest and there is a connection between the halvings and bull markets.
Once a halving happened the market phase shifts from a bear market to a bull market. You can clearly see this on the chart. The bull market extends each time in duration and I calculated that it is around a x1.44 increase after every new bull market.
  • 1st halving's bull market duration: 364d, ATH: $1,177
  • 2nd halving's bull market duration: 525d, ATH $19,764
  • 3rd halving's estimated bull market duration: 749d, ATH: $120,000

Price hits a new high after every halving, this is also noticable from the chart and the data. While some may prefer to estimate and predict the price based off the increase in % with every new ATH ,
I use the top of the parabolic channel as the target (which, you could say, acts as resistance) and use the estimated duration of the new bull market to get the price.
When you use this theory/formula Bitcoin will hit around $120.000 around 30 May 2022

Personally I use this theory because it's more reliable. Why? It's a more accurate & logical system which lays in line with the Stock-to-Flow Model: BTC S2F Model. (Very interesting model to research).

From previous ATH to new ATH: $250k ATH (Not in my favor)
With that out of the way, there is another theory which you can use. Simply using the ATH's and the time between those two to calculate the duration for the next All Time High.
So here are my findings with this theory:
  • The first huge peak of Bitcoin was back in 2011 when Bitcoin reached $31.90.
  • The second huge run was in end of 2013 reaching a high towards $1,177.00. (Took 903d)
  • The third huge ATH was hit in 2017 reaching a high towards $19,674.00. (Took 1477d)
  • The fourth new huge ATH is estimated to be hit in 2024 reaching a high towards $250,000.00. (Estimated to take around 2415d)

Just going off by ATHs and the time between those peaks isn't really an accurate measure. But it is known that it always takes longer to reach a new ATH . 2415 days till we see the very top is too long IMO and with the growing interest this is unlikely. As insitutions are buying into bitcoin it shouldn't take that much time for Bitcoin to reach a new ATH . Those big players hold crypto for a long time and aren't trading in this market. But the retail interest is still very low, much, much lower than it was in 2017. You can see this on this chart:
Retail interest in Bitcoin

Some interesting data that make BTC more bullish in the future:
4 million BTC is lost due to lost wallets. With 18,500,000 BTC in circulation this is 21,6% of all BTC lost. This means 21,6% of market cap is lost money. That's more than $60 billion lost... See this here: Here
The US printed 21% of all circulating USD in 2020 alone (which is insane...). This is crazy data which can only result in inflation for fiat currencies. This can't happen to BTC . See how much was printed: 21% Of All USD Is Printed In 2020
Dow Jones will list crypto currency indeces in 2021: Dow Jones To Index Crypto Coins

Disclaimer: The links in this idea are not meant as a promotional or affiliate links.

If you have any thoughts or questions on this, let me know.

Comments

Awesome. Even though I think the ATH target is too much compressed in this analysis. You should take into consideration the massive inflow of corporate funds right now and put more emphasis on the inflationary monetary policy of central banks. Cause till now we didn' t see much inflation - so imagine how the price of Bitcoin will behave in a truly inflationary or even hiperinflationary environment. I think 350k is a conservative target. But once again - GOOD JOB! All the best!
+1 Reply
jonathanvn lucamodena
@lucamodena, Thank you for your comment! And yes you're also very correct. In the end of 2020 I found an interesting chart on twitter displaying current hyperinflation (at the time) against Bitcoins price in USD: https://twitter.com/andreattafabio/status/1344579291825188865 I tried to find the indicator or symbol or whatever the hell it is on TradingView but I didn't succeed. Perhaps you could help me out? Anyway, when you placed hyperinflation against BTC at the time, you could notice it didn't even make a new ATH, which is superbullish for the future! Also the billions flowing from hedge funds is another big play in this for sure! Wish you all the best!
Reply
Waw a very detailed analysis ... Great work.
+1 Reply
jonathanvn forexboat
@forexboat, Thanks!
Reply
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