A Super Simple Chart, Showing Why BTC is Set To Fall 67%! (BTC)
Here's one of the major technical reasons why BTC most likely has not bottomed, and we are simply experiencing a bear market rally. Looking here at the weekly chart, you can see that in every bear market in BTC's history, when it initially tests the weekly gaussian channel, it eventually fails, and the bear market continues.
In 2011, BTC had its first bear market. A few weeks before reaching the gaussian channel, there was a weekly downside reversal signal printed on the chart. Then, BTC reached the gaussian channel (purple circle.) From there, BTC fell 62.75%.
Then, in 2014, BTC printed a weekly downside reversal signal, just before reaching the weekly gaussian channel. There was a 96% rally off of the channel, and then BTC fell 75% before the bear market came to an end.
Fast forward to 2018, and BTC tested the weekly gaussian channel, this time before printing the weekly downside reversal signal. After the initial test of the gaussian channel, there was a 52.8% rally, and then BTC returned to the downside, falling an additional 68.4% before the bear market ended.
Looking at the current action, we can see that BTC appears to be in a similar state. It has already printed the downside reversal signal (which we are STILL under) and BTC has tested the top of the gaussian channel. Historically, BTC has NEVER recovered from this action. It has ALWAYS fallen to lower lows in the bear market. So, based on this analysis, it's pretty clear that we are most likely in a bear market rally, and BTC will likely return to the downside, surpassing the lows that were already formed at the 28,000 level. I still think there is a high probability that BTC will fall below the 20K level. Judging by the previous declines after testing the top of the gaussian channel, we should expect BTC to fall at least 60%. The average fall is actually 67%, based on the performances of the previous bear markets. So, a 67% fall from here would take BTC to about 16,500, which is right about where the 200 week moving average is, which is also where the previous bear markets bottomed. Coincidence? I think not.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
In 2011, BTC had its first bear market. A few weeks before reaching the gaussian channel, there was a weekly downside reversal signal printed on the chart. Then, BTC reached the gaussian channel (purple circle.) From there, BTC fell 62.75%.
Then, in 2014, BTC printed a weekly downside reversal signal, just before reaching the weekly gaussian channel. There was a 96% rally off of the channel, and then BTC fell 75% before the bear market came to an end.
Fast forward to 2018, and BTC tested the weekly gaussian channel, this time before printing the weekly downside reversal signal. After the initial test of the gaussian channel, there was a 52.8% rally, and then BTC returned to the downside, falling an additional 68.4% before the bear market ended.
Looking at the current action, we can see that BTC appears to be in a similar state. It has already printed the downside reversal signal (which we are STILL under) and BTC has tested the top of the gaussian channel. Historically, BTC has NEVER recovered from this action. It has ALWAYS fallen to lower lows in the bear market. So, based on this analysis, it's pretty clear that we are most likely in a bear market rally, and BTC will likely return to the downside, surpassing the lows that were already formed at the 28,000 level. I still think there is a high probability that BTC will fall below the 20K level. Judging by the previous declines after testing the top of the gaussian channel, we should expect BTC to fall at least 60%. The average fall is actually 67%, based on the performances of the previous bear markets. So, a 67% fall from here would take BTC to about 16,500, which is right about where the 200 week moving average is, which is also where the previous bear markets bottomed. Coincidence? I think not.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-