BLX
BTC moves in accord with Fibonacci Levels more so than most assets. I will use 2 different Fib tools, and 4 ways of drawing, 3 of which are the classical "Fibonacci Retracement", the other one is "Trend Based Fibonacci Extension".
Before beginning it is important to notice that;
The dashed line Fib, is "extension" drawn from high to low, 1.272, 1.618, 2.272, 2.414 extension levels projecting the next cycle peak.
The straight line Fib, is "retracement" drawn from low to high, 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618 cycle bottom projections.
Dotted Line Fib, is Trend Based Fibonacci Extension.
All Fib is logarithmic, so is the chart
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Here we go, basically this is the first cycle, actually there's another peak before august but the data is unavailable in trading view. We can call that proto cycle.
So this proto cycle peak retraced to the first cycle bottom between 0.236 to 0.382.
For the next cycle bottoms I will retrace them like this one from the previous bottom to peak, and also from the previous peak to peak. Since we can not see the peak from before the proto cycle I am unable to draw it for the first bottom.
Nevertheless looking at this we can also see that the run up after the first cycle bottom did not find any resistance until 1.618 level which caused it to retrace back to 1.272 level. After this mini fractal cycle noted as "A" and "B". BTC rallied all the way up to an ATH between 2.272, 2.414 fib levels.
Now if we iterate for the second cycle retracement we get..
1. We can see that drawing from the bottom of the first cycle like we did previously; the first cycle peak retraced to the second cycle bottom between the same levels as before from 0.236 to 0.382. (Far right fib)
2. It is important to remark that the 0.618 level for this fib was approximately same with the previous cycle peak (Proto cycle peak)
What is more interesting is that when drawn from the proto cycle peak to the first cycle peak, the retracement closed exactly at the 0.5 fib level and wicked below not reaching the 0.618 level.
3. Also it touched the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
So three different fibonacci levels together mark an area for the next cycle bottom.
Continuing the iteration with the second cycle fib extensions..
The scenario still holds up for the second cycle peak reaching between 2.272 and 2.414 levels however the Zig Zag between 1.618 and 1.272 levels of 2013 noted as A and B are not present here. Although we can still see both levels still played an important role as when the price went over it as in 1 and 3; it was gravitated to retest the fib levels as in 2 and 4.
So the levels played a split role this time.
More on these price actions later (A, B, 1, 2, 3, 4)
Let's see retracement levels for the third cycle...
The second cycle peak retraced to the same levels between 0.236 and 0.382 from bottom, 0.618 from previous peak and 1.618 extension from previous cycle. Similar to what happened when First cycle peak was retracing to the second cycle bottom. Some differences though;
The bottom seems to be getting lower as this time it found support right at 0.382, last cycle it was right under 0.236.
and broken 0.5 as well as 0.618 levels when drawn from peak to peak.
For the 1.618 fib extension it was hit exactly as the same spot as the previous cycle.
Also the 0.618 retracement level when drawn from bottom matched approximately the first cycle peak as before.
So now what if we iterate fib extensions once again for the third cycle..
At a glance we can see crazy numbers for the cycle peak between 2.272 and 2.4141 levels ranging from 200k to 265k.
Also the 1.618 fib extension is proving to be an extremely difficult resistance to break.
The first peak at 42k retraced back to the 1.272 level like all previous cycles,
The high of 65k noted as 1 in orange touched the 1.618 and retraced all the way back to 1.272 unlike 2017 but exactly as 2013.
The current ATH of 69k retested the 1.618 and started to retrace to .. ???
Speculation
If we look at the middle A B cycle of 2013,
First of all it retested the 1.272 level twice.
In hindsight of the upcoming price action, the bottom of the mini cycle coincides with the 0.786 retracement level of the next cycle(second cycle).
When the price broke above 0.618 level of the A B extension it rose up to 1.618 level peaking before the 2 level. Notice that, the whole 2013 cycle is essentially two separate 1.618 jumps. First one being from the first cycle bottom to the high of A. and then from low of b to the first cycle peak.
The area between 1.618 to 2.0 is a sweet spot for peaks.
Now let's see how 2017 middle point played out..
Because in 2017 we had the 1.618 and 1.272 act as separate incidents, we see the fibonacci levels play out in a different way. After retracing to 1.272 level (numbered as 1 to 2), the next peak of 3 was between 1.618 and 2 just like in 2013. And we take the extension from 3 to 4 we see the next peak was also between 1.618 and 2. You could argue that this happened a few more times over with increasing speed until it reached its ATH but from what we can see through weekly candles the next peak just shot up to between 3.618 and 3.414 levels at around 19k. So the sweet spot played a part in waves progression.
Also we can note that the 0.786 level for the retracement from peak coincides with the bottom of "2" as it was in 2013.
Keeping all of these synergies or constraints in memory we take a look at our current situation.
If we assume 260k to be the peak of this cycle, I know it seems far fetched at this moment but lets play with the idea for a moment. perhaps we can catch some backwards synergies.
Looking at the retracement levels as before (assuming a peak of 260k), 0.786 level coincides with our retracement to 1.272 around 32k and the 0.618 level approximately matches the previous ATH of 19k. All 3 levels that have marked the next cycle bottom namely, 0.5 to 0.618 retracement from peak and the area between 0.236 to 0.382 from the bottom, also the 1.618 fib extension from previous cycle; converge to a box between 49k and 62k; matching our current support resistance levels approximately. From all three only the 1.618 fibonacci extension was hit every cycle bottom considering we are deriving the other two constraints from the assumption of 260k; we should try different price levels as well.
Assuming we peak at 120k at 2.0 fibonacci extension
Although the 0.786 level still matches the 1.272 extension bottom mid cycle. The 0.618 retracement level when drawn from bottom goes to far below the previous peak.
In that I will assume the peak is around 200k to 260k
Fib extensions a and b for the "Summer Crash" and "September Dump".
c, d and e (in red) are possible extensions for our current dump. Respectively the low of 39.6k that we have already printed, 34k and 28k.
Considering the inner waves retrace from somewhere over 1.618 and below 2.0 extension levels; I have marked this area with circles for each of them.
And included all relevant fib levels for each of them.
At first glance the 1.618 and 3.414 levels match exactly for the Summer crash and September dump, also this 106k level is at the perfect area (white circle) between 1.618 and 2.0 levels of the larger fib extension from the previous cycle.
To show how important this 1.618 - 2.0 progression is I have shown this area for the September dump "b" in red circle. You can see that this matched exactly the high of 69k.
Looking at our 3 options c, d and e
If "the bottom is in" then looking at c we can see that the purple circle is around 106k, so if BTC pumped to the purple circle seeing how important this area is both psychologically(over 100k) and 1.618 and 3.414 levels of a and b the important 106k level, BTC could then retrace back to 1.618 around 97k. Also the RSI is testing a multi year trendline although this is not a certainty for a bounce the likelihood increases.
Or BTC drops to 34k-35k, and I picked this number because it matched the 1.618 extension to 106k when drawn from this level. Since this level is not coming from any of my assumptions and is a direct extension level both for a and b dumps. Having another level match that seems likely. Also the purple box for d matches the green box for a. Meaning if BTC drops to 34 k and then pumps to 120k in order to retrace back to 106k. Then that new peak would coincide with the sweet spot of a. Consider this if you were looking at extensions from the summer crash, the green circle would be where you should be looking for the next peak. And so drawing an extension from 34k for us now puts the sweet spot of that extension at the same area. Validating both the mini extension and the larger extension at the same time. I am looking at these synergies because BTC likes to complete many fractals of varying sizes at the same time.
Looking at e, meaning we retest 28k; then the sweet spot still match with green although a little high however the 2.272 and 2.414 levels exactly sit inside the larger 2.272 and 2.414 levels the ultimate peak area. Bigger the dump, bigger the pump this could be a one shot to the moon like 2017 mid cycle progression. Since the halving is nearing, a strong dump and a fast pump following a fast crash would coincide with not only the coming halving but perhaps an upcoming market crash as a whole. A black swan event like 2008 stock market crash or 2020 virus crash.
First Conclusion
39k, 34k, 28k all seem likely targets for the short term and none of them invalidate the bullish Fibonacci narrative. Which is that the area between 32k and 62k is a transitionary area, where BTC is traversing for the third time. Each time a little different however each time marking the support zone for the next cycle bottom. In that it is safe to say any BTC that is sold under 62k will be short lived. And at best will be the bottom of next cycle.
Trend Based Fibonacci Extension
Most interestingly the 0.786 extension shows the peak and for our current cycle it is at 136k.
It is an area of interest from the previous hart where the 2.0 120k extension and sweet spot from a and d converge around 130k. Considering d is the option to dump down to 34k and here when we look at trend based extension we seethe 0.5 level is also 34.5k. Considering this also happened in 2013 where it retested the 0.5 trend based extension level twice.
If this box around 40 k(61k-34.5k) is going to be the bottom next cycle and 130k the peak; that would give a 70% bear market.
Second Conclusion
Assuming 130k is the cycle peak, it could be that this is a three step bull run where we enter bear market and drop from 130k to 40k around 2023 bottom. Then 2024 closes near 100k as halving happens. Next bull run to initial levels of 200-260k. 2025.
You could take an extension from 130k to 40k and find out that the sweet spot hits 220k. A three sweet spot step ladder into the larger 2.272, 2.414 levels.
Expect a pump to around 100k at least and for a longer step up between 200 and 260k are key. Dropping to 28k shouldn't be too much of a problem, fib narrative bullish.
Just my two sats.