BTC Analysis 4h/1d/1w | Next OB 2900-1900

Good Morning Traders,
Hope you enjoyed my analysis. Thanks you for listening and always supporting my work!

BTC analysis written:
-4h chart showing higher lows but also lower highs as per prev. swing. This is creating a tightening price action to create a large bear pennant pattern. These patterns have a high probability of breaking to the downside
-Daily chart looking more bearish than bullish
-Weekly chart has breached the rising trend line this does not mean that BTC will go to zero. Remember new trend lines can always be created
-The 200MA on the weekly resides near the $3000 level. In 2015 we had a nice bounce off the 200MA and respected it multiple times
-If prices drive lower, look for the $3000 support. Although this area does not have a whole lot of support
-Due to the fact that $3000 is not a strong support the next Order Block will be our next area of support: $2900-$1900
-If we break past that $2900-$1900 OB our final stop will be a gap that has not been retested as a Support/Resistance flip - a healthy sign of a retrace in markets. This flip can be anywhere between $1900-$1300

What are Order Blocks?
A large purchase of securities/assets by big players/institutions

Quoted
A Bullish Order Block is created by a down move that precedes an up move that resumes the trend, makes new highs, and/or breaks market structure. This signifies a move by larger/institutional sized market participants in which price is driven lower to not only shake out participants, but also to buy the currency/coin at a lower price as well.\u2028\u2028As you may have guessed

A Bearish Order Block, is highlighted the same way, but instead of a down move preceding an up move, a bearish order block is created by an upmove before a down-move which resumes the downtrend, makes new lows and/or breaks market structure. These levels are created by institutional short sellers, who will bring the price up to create liquidity from breakout/FOMO buyers and stop losses from shorts, so that they can sell at a higher price with the necessary volume. The next time price returns back to this level, it is in their best interest to protect this level and send price back lower to keep their shorts in profit.

Watch the EQ level of ~$3850 and the break of the rising green trend line as mentioned in the 4h chart

Thanks for your support! Keep watching and sharing :)

Comment:

With BTC headed down again, here are critical levels to watch. The local fib shows the bottom at $3656.78 (YTD low) the swing high at 0% - $4414.89. As per the local fib, we closed the prev. daily candle at $3833, just $11 above the 618 fib. And this morning I mentioned how that'd be a place to place a buy order if you're interested in a quick trade so if you listened, your order hit. You will, however, have to close it soon as we want to secure profits in case price decides to dump, watch the 50% fib as a target and then the red zone as mentioned.

Big picture view: We have to watch the $3730 marker first in the local price range. The reason this price matters is because the previous swing low candles all closed higher than that figure. If this breaks the next critical level to watch the close under is that blue line of $3669. If you look to the left of the chart on the weekly, you will see we closed above that blue line. Closing a daily/weekly could validate the continuation of the downtrend. It will also then take us the 50% of the OB. And if we cannot stay above that 50% of the OB then I think we are destined to go to $3000 or lower. The reason we could go lower is $3000 area does not hold as strong of a support as the next order block below it $2900-$1900.

Comment:

The gap:

Comment:

Price is starting to break past the green ascending trend line. I expect price to fall to blue line next for support $3670. If that does not old then the prev. low (YTD low) will be our next support - which is not that strong - at $3456

Comment:

Ascending green trend line is being breached on the 4h chart. With that there is also a consistent descending parallel channel being created. Price is meeting the EQ of the current OB range. Unless we create a mini W bottom in this channel and take out the prev. swing high of $4035, we may essentially be creating lower highs and moving down slowly toward that YTD low. Nothing about this chart speaks of bullishness on any time frame.

Comment:

The weekly shows utter weakness and a bear flag-like structure being created. If this current weekly candle does not close above the closing price of the prev. weekly candle $4103, the bears may be determined to take out that YTD low of $3456.
Next stop: $3000

Comment:

Price taking a bit of a dump here and meeting our blue line target perfectly + the descending channel. Let's see if we break both.

Comment:

Price dangerously flirting with the blue line and bear flagging

Comment:

Perfect example of what happened to price after it could not climb above the order block (OB) of $7862 to $5496 - see white 50% equilibrium (EQ) fib line of $6679. Price spent close to 2 months under the EQ of that OB then tanked from $6500 down to current levels. Order blocks are important to maintain and respect from technicals perspective because they show you that buyers from the prev. OB are defending their positions and either absorbing their supply or not capitulating and selling. As you can see we are in the exact scenario that we were in last month - price has now broken under the 50% EQ ($3828) of current OB ($4680 to $2977). The longer price spends under this EQ level- the more likely it is the price will drop.

Comment:

Many of you are wondering that BTCSHORTS being at ATH, will there be a reckoning and a short squeeze to pump crypto prices. Let me answer with an illustration. You can see the two charts below showing the purple rectangle. The BTC/USD price moved tightly between a range of $200 from Oct 19 all the way into early November. You can see the same time frame in BTCSHORTS showing a massive trimming of short contracts from 38k to 19k. This should show you quite easily that in such a heavy bear market, even the most epic short squeeze could not push prices up significantly. The only way prices will move up is when big money steps in and decides at $X that BTC (and crypto as a whole) is too undervalued and it's time to start buying. Mind you, this may have happened in small positions over the past few weeks but clearly has not happened significantly, yet. Trust me, you guys will be the first to know when this happens because we will watch how prices get defended from the real bulls with deep pockets. They will buy up essentially everything and create an unbreakable floor. And once that floor is established, we will all have an opportunity to buy as well. So to answer your question, in a long winded manner, no- I do not think the shorts being at ATH will cause prices to rocket if there is a short squeeze hunt.