My thoughts on the Bitcoin Cycle - BTCUSD ($BTC)
Here are my views on the Bitcoin Cycle. $BTC
If you take a look at the previous Bitcoin cycles, you will find some striking "coincidences". I will explain below using the 2W Bitcoin Chart.
1) Starting from November 2011, we find Bitcoins low around $2.01. From this bottom, Bitcoin begins its parabolic advancement.
I have noticed that the first key level of resistance came in at the 1.618 fib (log) at a price of $176.08. We do see a wick beyond this level, but ultimately we get strong selling pressure in this area with a 75%-80% drop.
After this pull back, we get our final maniac move up to the top. This lines up with the 2.272 fib (log) level.
The following bear market bottoms at the 1.618 fib which acted as resistance in the preceding bull market.
2) Starting from the bottom in January 2015 at a low of $163.88, Bitcoin begins its parabolic move up to the 1.618 fib (log) level. Again this acts as resistance with roughly a 40% price drop.
After this pull back, we get the final move up to 2.272 fib (log) zone at $14,456.89. We know that Bitcoin topped shortly after around $19700
Again, the following bear market bottoms at the 1.618 fib which acted as resistance in the preceding bull market.
3) Starting from the bottom of $3148.33 in Dec 2018, Bitcoin begins its parabolic move up to the 1.618 (log) level. This marks the current date where we seem to be finding resistance. I'd expect the volatility of this drop to diminish relative to the first drop (approx.75%) and second 40% drop.
Once our floor is found, I'll be looking at a move towards the 2.272 fib (log). This lines up at $204,500 or lets say $200,000 ;) with room for wicks above.
I'll love to see how this plays out in the years to come. Perhaps Bitcoin decides to bottom again at the 1.618 level around $61,500 in the next bear market.
Good luck everyone. Remember to take profits along the way.
Not Financial Advice
If you take a look at the previous Bitcoin cycles, you will find some striking "coincidences". I will explain below using the 2W Bitcoin Chart.
1) Starting from November 2011, we find Bitcoins low around $2.01. From this bottom, Bitcoin begins its parabolic advancement.
I have noticed that the first key level of resistance came in at the 1.618 fib (log) at a price of $176.08. We do see a wick beyond this level, but ultimately we get strong selling pressure in this area with a 75%-80% drop.
After this pull back, we get our final maniac move up to the top. This lines up with the 2.272 fib (log) level.
The following bear market bottoms at the 1.618 fib which acted as resistance in the preceding bull market.
2) Starting from the bottom in January 2015 at a low of $163.88, Bitcoin begins its parabolic move up to the 1.618 fib (log) level. Again this acts as resistance with roughly a 40% price drop.
After this pull back, we get the final move up to 2.272 fib (log) zone at $14,456.89. We know that Bitcoin topped shortly after around $19700
Again, the following bear market bottoms at the 1.618 fib which acted as resistance in the preceding bull market.
3) Starting from the bottom of $3148.33 in Dec 2018, Bitcoin begins its parabolic move up to the 1.618 (log) level. This marks the current date where we seem to be finding resistance. I'd expect the volatility of this drop to diminish relative to the first drop (approx.75%) and second 40% drop.
Once our floor is found, I'll be looking at a move towards the 2.272 fib (log). This lines up at $204,500 or lets say $200,000 ;) with room for wicks above.
I'll love to see how this plays out in the years to come. Perhaps Bitcoin decides to bottom again at the 1.618 level around $61,500 in the next bear market.
Good luck everyone. Remember to take profits along the way.
Not Financial Advice
Comment:
Update (22/04/21) - This is a 2 week chart for $BTC. We have had arguably 6-8 weeks of resistance at this level. The 1.618 log has acted as resistance in all previous bull cycles. If history repeats itself, once broken we head to $200,000, this market cycle. #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto
