I'v had many good fitting fractals these last few months, most of which I never shared because I believe the greater the number of people that believe something the less likely it is to happen (although the number of people that view my ideas is paltry, still I'm secretive anyway). Although none of this mattered because just when we approached breakout, the fractals would always fail. I know now that the psychology of the market is such that whenever a breakout opportunity is presented, the herd will back away. Fear is still very strong and they are only too willing to rationalise their fear with TA and assorted bullshit.
For this reason, I am no longer hopeful that a breakout to 10k and consolidation above the 200 daily MA will occur in 2018. I had hoped we would accumulate there for some months, but this seems unlikely to me now. I would be extremely happy to be proven wrong here though!
Now I have three possible scenarios in mind.
THE NUMEROLOGY BIT
Just for fun I thought I'd show how easy it is to see patterns where they are probably none. Those levels in the main chart correspond to tops and bottoms. Well, turns out they are all powers of 2. Interesting as Bitcoin is all about computer networks in fact bitcoin is all about BITS. from wikipedia "Two to the power of n, written as 2^n, is the number of ways the bits in a binary word of length n can be arranged" (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_of_two). WOW that must have some super esoteric conspiracy theory relevance!!!! MAN!
Human beings look for patterns. It's what evolution has programmed us to do. We are biological pattern recognition self-learning machines. In a highly non-linear world, it's no wonder we get confused sometime.
For this reason, I am no longer hopeful that a breakout to 10k and consolidation above the 200 daily MA will occur in 2018. I had hoped we would accumulate there for some months, but this seems unlikely to me now. I would be extremely happy to be proven wrong here though!
Now I have three possible scenarios in mind.
- We go sideways until Q4 where we begin a move upward. This scenario maintains the 7 year exponential trend (see chart below).
- We fall to around 4900 without breaking the trend and bounce and pull a move similar to April 2013 (see chart below)
- We break the trend and form a bottom around 4000k. This is the carbon copy of 2014 scenario (which will exemplify just how people have no imagination and simply want to copy the success of other people: lol it worked for them right). Unfortunately this will break a long-term uptrend and for me personally I do not envisage a new ATH after this. (see main chart)
THE NUMEROLOGY BIT
Just for fun I thought I'd show how easy it is to see patterns where they are probably none. Those levels in the main chart correspond to tops and bottoms. Well, turns out they are all powers of 2. Interesting as Bitcoin is all about computer networks in fact bitcoin is all about BITS. from wikipedia "Two to the power of n, written as 2^n, is the number of ways the bits in a binary word of length n can be arranged" (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_of_two). WOW that must have some super esoteric conspiracy theory relevance!!!! MAN!
Human beings look for patterns. It's what evolution has programmed us to do. We are biological pattern recognition self-learning machines. In a highly non-linear world, it's no wonder we get confused sometime.