This is a super-cycle idea suggesting the end of one of the grandest bubbles in recorded history.
Firstly this is considering the current macro environment and how it's playing out. If something changes there, this needs to be recalibrated.
With liquidity drying out and the FED's hands tied down due to inflation rising on one end and growth declining other side - situation looks ripe for another policy mistake(humans after all), popping the everything bubble, ending the decade-long artificial asset mega pump through bailouts, not again. Supply issues of band-aids.
Wave 3 has a perfect 1.618 extension of the initial alpha pop and it's sub-waves have a typical impulse structure of a new speculative bubble with wave 1 being longest and subsequently shortening in each cycle. Whales use fibs to incredible accuracy in this nascent price discovery market.
The current primary wave to 70k is in its double top EW flat correction which can extend to 23k initially, monthly 50MA level, a prime level where the previous bear markets have bottomed. Not this time. But I expect a decent bounce in that region. An Argument can be made for this to be a running flat ending at the current 33k leading to new ATH but as I mentioned macro structure does not support this. But I am still playing the bounce, just in case the tide shifts due to some extraordinary event.
Again, TA is only for guidance and bias support. It is not the absolute truth, so consider this broad idea only to have a larger timeframe bias while trading in shorter time frames considering its external conditions and events. A delicate balance while we try to manage risk.
As for the next grand 5th wave? Just being hopeful :)
Firstly this is considering the current macro environment and how it's playing out. If something changes there, this needs to be recalibrated.
With liquidity drying out and the FED's hands tied down due to inflation rising on one end and growth declining other side - situation looks ripe for another policy mistake(humans after all), popping the everything bubble, ending the decade-long artificial asset mega pump through bailouts, not again. Supply issues of band-aids.
Wave 3 has a perfect 1.618 extension of the initial alpha pop and it's sub-waves have a typical impulse structure of a new speculative bubble with wave 1 being longest and subsequently shortening in each cycle. Whales use fibs to incredible accuracy in this nascent price discovery market.
The current primary wave to 70k is in its double top EW flat correction which can extend to 23k initially, monthly 50MA level, a prime level where the previous bear markets have bottomed. Not this time. But I expect a decent bounce in that region. An Argument can be made for this to be a running flat ending at the current 33k leading to new ATH but as I mentioned macro structure does not support this. But I am still playing the bounce, just in case the tide shifts due to some extraordinary event.
Again, TA is only for guidance and bias support. It is not the absolute truth, so consider this broad idea only to have a larger timeframe bias while trading in shorter time frames considering its external conditions and events. A delicate balance while we try to manage risk.
As for the next grand 5th wave? Just being hopeful :)