BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
Nothing much has changed from my previous BTC long term view idea that i posted on March 21st
except that the wave 4 count (i deleted the wave count on this chart cause it was too cluttered, you can see the wave count in the link above in my previous post) that i assumed this rally would be got invalidated so i think we are in the massive bull trap that i was waiting for and this plays out like the 2014 fractal (retracement to 0.382 fib level) then we are looking at 9.5 - 10k area to top.
This bear market is rhyming with the 2014 bear market so much that this just seems to me to be the most logical scenario that will play out (price action & time wise). I am totally open to contrary ideas but please explain in detail and if you have a chart that's even better. If you didn't short the 84% move from 20k down to 3.1k then this may be another oppurtunity to short an even larger move of 88% from 9-10k to 1-1.3k
Same thought:

I hope so. I honestly don’t want this bear market to be over just yet. I don’t think Bitcoin has fallen to fair value.
oaksacorn IsaacLarrell
@IsaacLarrell, Actually fair value is a lot higher than this. We have been trading below fair value for a very long time - just like 2014, 2015 and 2016. We are still not close even with this rally.
@oaksacorn, How do you determine the fair value of an unregulated highly manipulated asset that risen 20000x in 7 years? The only thing we are trying to do is predict the most likely scenario to play out in this cycle and the only data we have to do that is the past two cycles since that's all the history bitcoin has. I think the majority is focusing on the price rather then the time. Just looking at how the second cycle took twice as long as the first cycle kinda shows that the more people get in, the slower the market moves. I don't know, nobody knows if the bottom is really in or not, time will tell but i'm just sayin i don't think we have really seen the pain and depression yet. I hope i'm wrong though, cause the sooner the bull market begins the better for me :)
I strongly believe that We will get at least one more time to buy bitcoin below $5000 before the next bull season! Let's see how it goes!

cryptohannn CryptoEngineering
@CryptoEngineering, Agreed 100%. It's just too easy too fast to begin the bull market now. The market is just not that stupid and isn't built for the average joe's benifit.
The 2014 bear market lasted twice as long as the previous one. The cycles are getting longer each time. I don't know this rally just doesn't feel right.
+1 Reply
@cryptohannn, Getting closer dude. I also agree with you.
+1 Reply
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