In view of global financial crisis (with stocks collapsing), I expect BTC prices to be relatively subdued going into March and slowly climbing back to $9.5k-$10.5k range towards end of march, for the simple fact we are very close to cost of production.
Using Satoshi's words:
“The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost.”
As we are very close to cost of production, recession or not miners will be unwilling to sell any fresh supply of Bitcoin below these levels. So effectively the inflation rate will drop to 0%. The only source of Bitcoin will be retail which is simply panicking looking at the stocks crashing, which will be bought up people looking for bargains.
As we approach halving towards the end of March and into April, miners will refuse to sell any Bitcoin below $14k (the cost of production post halving), to keep enough buffer for replacing mining equipment just released by Bitcoin, which would cause the initial pump on the prices in April, as even with falling stocks and Gold, BTC refuses to drop, giving confidence to the folk that just sold right now to buy back in at higher prices.
Further updates will follow, if my above thesis holds, and BTC achieves the targets on the chart.
Bottom line people will be surprised by the relative strength of Bitcoin compared to everything into halving.
Using Satoshi's words:
“The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost.”
As we are very close to cost of production, recession or not miners will be unwilling to sell any fresh supply of Bitcoin below these levels. So effectively the inflation rate will drop to 0%. The only source of Bitcoin will be retail which is simply panicking looking at the stocks crashing, which will be bought up people looking for bargains.
As we approach halving towards the end of March and into April, miners will refuse to sell any Bitcoin below $14k (the cost of production post halving), to keep enough buffer for replacing mining equipment just released by Bitcoin, which would cause the initial pump on the prices in April, as even with falling stocks and Gold, BTC refuses to drop, giving confidence to the folk that just sold right now to buy back in at higher prices.
Further updates will follow, if my above thesis holds, and BTC achieves the targets on the chart.
Bottom line people will be surprised by the relative strength of Bitcoin compared to everything into halving.