MrRenev

Bitcoin hype is back. Is it a good buy? No (ponzi).

BNC:BLX   Bitcoin Liquid Index
Bitcoin perma bulls are back! After hiding for over 6 months they came back to celebrate once again.
Took long enough.

Bitcoin bagholders pretending they are making money even though regulators are saying they overwhelmingly lose, it is so bad actually that they had to ban crypto CFDS.



This casino market is purely driven by the emotions of hysterical teenage girls with poor intellectual abilities.
Let me correct that.
Emotions + random indicators. It might be a coincidence but if it is not it is a big goldmine to extract.
15R?! Even 10R! Even 5 would be well worth risking it! Are these rallies on the 2D chart following an MA cross a coincidence? Who knows.


I cannot wait for the next crash and MA cross. CFDS got banned so I'll have to send money to a crypto exchange.
No point trading BTC now, I would rather wait for something I have high certainty with. Who cares about missing out?

Meanwhile I did not care about missing out and I just made 8 times my money at risk on the way up between the 21 October and late November....
I made some good calls I had high certainty of (the 8R I mentioned):



The problem with this short is I knew it would happen but I did not know when, and it took forever as usual with Bitcoin.
So in the end I have this idea with the right timing but I waited so long for it.
It is much easier to make money on the upside, abusing dumb money (and Bitcoin has no shortage of that).


According to en.ethereumworldnews...ors-longer-ethereum/
Bitcoin bagholders hold their coins for 2.7 years (1000 days) but the holding period of the angry baggy in the comments has to be lower, I think people that buy some BTC and store it and forget about it ... wait for it ... forget about it.

When the price has been up 66.6% (2/3) above the MA 200 we have witnessed thrill.

I might be biased because CFDS got banned which means I am not looking for a buy anymore. Except I am not biased.
I did my buy, and now I do not see a clear opportunity.
For those that worry about missing out well then they should buy. If you do not want to miss out you buy simple.
For me, missing out is not an issue, I will often miss out and I just do not care, and so now I am taking no action.
It might be a buy later on but let's be real here, the BTC permaidiots are not going to read this, and I like playing with them, so my title will be no.
I want to draw a big red line going to zero but this would get in the way of my annotations and not make sense. Next time big red line to zero.
Hopefully the plebes - of they see this idea - only read the big red letters saying pyramid scheme and amuse us with their rage comments ^^
Nevermind I will draw a big red line anyway but also a green one.

I cannot tell where we are but I think thrill has started, we are not in euphoria yet but it could be baggies being silent because they think it will magically make the price keep going up, or it could be interest in this ponzi has permanently vanished.

No clear conclusions are possible ==> No trade.

The conclusions are very clear for perma bulls but they always are no matter what.
What is the point of them sharing their opinion? Making us laugh?
They are just bullish all the time no matter what, 0 added value.


And on the flip side, big panic when the price is down by 33.3% from their average price.



Some crypto brokers give leverage. So maybe it will be worth it. Only need to lock as much capital as one wants to risk.
Send 100$, for a 10% SL at 12k for example you aim to risk 100 just use 10 leverage and that's it, no wasted capital.

Or send $100 to risk 100 with a 20% SL, a long term hold here, aiming to make possibly 1000 or more.
Send an additional 50 to pay for rollovers and to have some freedom.


Purely hypothetical:


If you buy 1 Bitcoin at 15000 your max risk is 15000 if all hell breaks loose, and a 20% SL is 3000 + interests.

Those are 6 months to 2 years holds.
If Bitcoin goes into an actual bull market there is no reason to take short term trades, the logical time horizons will be those ones.
Much better for taxes than lots of tiny trades that these shady crypto exchanges wipe clean of their history.

If there is a real opportunity then it is really really hard to miss it. Active investors literally can not miss an opportunity.
It's over weeks and we are supposed to check regularly. How do you miss? Just get drunk and avoid the price for 3 months?
Even not looking at it you'll hear about it somewhere, somehow. It is impossible to miss a good opportunity.
If we miss it it means it was not a good opportunity.

So wait and see now. Watch silly perma bulls celebrate now and then stress out and cry later as usual.
Let the FOMO crowd chase the top. They laughed at me for missing out 2019 "new bull market" which was not one, and then without trying I made a better return that they would have made if BTC went to 100k, and it has only gotten to 20k for now. And my capital was not frozen this whole time (I had lots of fun in April with literal free money on Oil futures, while they were in heart attack mode after BTC fell back to 3k).

I did not make an enormous job on myself to fight my feelings of regret, I just do not have them to start with. Why do people have regret and fomo? Noobs.
The longer the time span, the more people with rules and skill outperform the fomo crowd. 3 years just to get back to ath.

Each bull market has been slower, so if the trend continues (which makes sense) this will take even longer and we will have more time and it will be even harder to miss an opportunity (time will tell if it will be a win or a loss).



Bitcoin 10K never again. Until it completely collapses and goes to zero. But we'll let permabull bagholders worry about that 🙃, we'll have sold long ago when that happens.
Also maybe Ursula, Biden, and Xi make a surprise ban in the next 2 years.
I already repeated enough times not to fomo and to use reasonable position sizing people here are all grown ups and will make their own decisions (most BTC permabulls are not but I don't make the rules).


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