Most Likely Bottom For Bitcoin in Low 2000's, Here's Why! (BTC)
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it. If you recall from my recent analyses, we have been following a fractal pattern that I recognized between today's market, and the pattern that was created when the last bear market bottomed. The chart on the left is today's BTC chart, while the chart on the right is where the last bear market bottomed, in early 2015. As you can see on the chart on the right, BTC had fallen into a traignel that was produced between the weekly 200 MA (in pink) and the daily 50 EMA (in orange.) Inside of the triangle, price created a head and shoudlers that did not produce a breakdown. Instead, price held the bottom of the triangle as support, and eventually rallied out, before entering a long sideways consolidation of holds on the weekly 200 MA.
Looking at today's chart on the left, we can see that there has been a deviation in the fractal pattern. Comparing the similarities, we can see that price fell to the bottom of the downtrend channel, and basically held that simultaneously with the weekly 200 MA (in pink) and then entered a triangle between the exact same two moving averages, with a head and shoulders pattern inside. However, we can see that instead of holding the triangle like BTC did in 2015, we have actually broken down below it, and BTC is currently moving lower to retest the weekly 200 MA for support.
We can see that the weekly 200 MA is not far below the current price. So, it will be interesting to see if a hold is printed, or if BTC breaks below it. Make no mistake, this price action is determining if the bottom is in or not. If BTC can continue to hold these levels, then that is confirmation that the bottom is in for the bear market. Personally, I am slightly more bearish than bullish. Meaning, I think there is a higher likelihood that the bottom is still not in, and that we could get another push lower. However, I don't really think it will be down to the 1000 level anymore, and that's basically derived from my analysis of the log chart. Obviously, the 1100's are still possible, but if that happens, it will destroy the primary uptrend that has existed for nearly a decade on the log chart. I have poured through so much data, to try to form a perfectly unbiased picture of where the market is going, but there is evidence supporting both sides. We have a deviation from the fractal (bearish) with a breakdown below the triangle (bearish) and consecutive lower highs and lower lows on the chart (bearish) but a hold of the same moving average that the last bear market bottomed on (bullish) in a downtrend channel (bearish) can't get above the 50 EMA (bearish) confirmed the weekly 200 EMA as resistance (bearish) room for more downside on the log chart's uptrend arch (bearish) significant support is just below current price action (bullish if held) litecoin fractal projects a sharp decline that would be derived from a fall in BTC (bearish) more room for percentage losses, given the massive gains of the last bull market, compared to the relatively weak gains of the prior bull market and then it's subsequent bear market losses (bearish) weekly RSI reached similar oversold levels to last bear market bottom (bullish.) I could go on, but the majority of the data points are bearish, while a vast minority are bullish.
Regardless, we are most definitely poised to test the weekly 200 MA (in pink.) If it fails to hold, then double bottom (3128) would be the next line of defense. Below that, we would be looking at a fall to lower levels. You can see that there is a dashed blue vertical trendline on the left chart. That is a measurement of the height of the triangle, then subtracted from the breakdown point for a maximum fall projection. If price were to fall to the maximum projected distance of the tirangle, we can see that it would be to around the 2400 area, which is right where some good support is from the bull market.
For more information on the comparison of this analysis to the log chart, please view my attached BTC log chart below. Please wait a few minutes after the original post of this analysis to view the log chart attachment.***
The following information is for the attached BTC log chart analysis:
As you can see on the log chart, price still has not reached the bottom of the rising blue support arch, which has been held for nine years! In fact, the bottom of the arch is roughly 30% lower. Looking at the weekly RSI, you can see that in the last bear market, price relative strength touched the oversold level in September. Then, 105 days later, price broke slightly below the oversold level, and that was the true bottom of the bear market. Today, we have produced our first touch of oversold territory. Seeing that we have 30% more to fall before touching the rising arch, another fall within the 105 day period would put us right in the area of the support of the blue rising arch. And do you see where that level is? It's in the low 2000s, right around 23-2400. I am interested in seeing this arch being held by the market. That would be a fascinating and extremely powerful indication that we have truly bottomed.
As you all know, I did entertain the 1100 area for a while, but then I realized that if we go that low, it will break this rising arch on the log chart that has existed for the entire lifespan of BTC. So, I would like to believe that such an event will not happen, and thus, I have gravitated to an ideal bottom scenario in the low 2000s, likely in mid March.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Looking at today's chart on the left, we can see that there has been a deviation in the fractal pattern. Comparing the similarities, we can see that price fell to the bottom of the downtrend channel, and basically held that simultaneously with the weekly 200 MA (in pink) and then entered a triangle between the exact same two moving averages, with a head and shoulders pattern inside. However, we can see that instead of holding the triangle like BTC did in 2015, we have actually broken down below it, and BTC is currently moving lower to retest the weekly 200 MA for support.
We can see that the weekly 200 MA is not far below the current price. So, it will be interesting to see if a hold is printed, or if BTC breaks below it. Make no mistake, this price action is determining if the bottom is in or not. If BTC can continue to hold these levels, then that is confirmation that the bottom is in for the bear market. Personally, I am slightly more bearish than bullish. Meaning, I think there is a higher likelihood that the bottom is still not in, and that we could get another push lower. However, I don't really think it will be down to the 1000 level anymore, and that's basically derived from my analysis of the log chart. Obviously, the 1100's are still possible, but if that happens, it will destroy the primary uptrend that has existed for nearly a decade on the log chart. I have poured through so much data, to try to form a perfectly unbiased picture of where the market is going, but there is evidence supporting both sides. We have a deviation from the fractal (bearish) with a breakdown below the triangle (bearish) and consecutive lower highs and lower lows on the chart (bearish) but a hold of the same moving average that the last bear market bottomed on (bullish) in a downtrend channel (bearish) can't get above the 50 EMA (bearish) confirmed the weekly 200 EMA as resistance (bearish) room for more downside on the log chart's uptrend arch (bearish) significant support is just below current price action (bullish if held) litecoin fractal projects a sharp decline that would be derived from a fall in BTC (bearish) more room for percentage losses, given the massive gains of the last bull market, compared to the relatively weak gains of the prior bull market and then it's subsequent bear market losses (bearish) weekly RSI reached similar oversold levels to last bear market bottom (bullish.) I could go on, but the majority of the data points are bearish, while a vast minority are bullish.
Regardless, we are most definitely poised to test the weekly 200 MA (in pink.) If it fails to hold, then double bottom (3128) would be the next line of defense. Below that, we would be looking at a fall to lower levels. You can see that there is a dashed blue vertical trendline on the left chart. That is a measurement of the height of the triangle, then subtracted from the breakdown point for a maximum fall projection. If price were to fall to the maximum projected distance of the tirangle, we can see that it would be to around the 2400 area, which is right where some good support is from the bull market.
For more information on the comparison of this analysis to the log chart, please view my attached BTC log chart below. Please wait a few minutes after the original post of this analysis to view the log chart attachment.***
The following information is for the attached BTC log chart analysis:
As you can see on the log chart, price still has not reached the bottom of the rising blue support arch, which has been held for nine years! In fact, the bottom of the arch is roughly 30% lower. Looking at the weekly RSI, you can see that in the last bear market, price relative strength touched the oversold level in September. Then, 105 days later, price broke slightly below the oversold level, and that was the true bottom of the bear market. Today, we have produced our first touch of oversold territory. Seeing that we have 30% more to fall before touching the rising arch, another fall within the 105 day period would put us right in the area of the support of the blue rising arch. And do you see where that level is? It's in the low 2000s, right around 23-2400. I am interested in seeing this arch being held by the market. That would be a fascinating and extremely powerful indication that we have truly bottomed.
As you all know, I did entertain the 1100 area for a while, but then I realized that if we go that low, it will break this rising arch on the log chart that has existed for the entire lifespan of BTC. So, I would like to believe that such an event will not happen, and thus, I have gravitated to an ideal bottom scenario in the low 2000s, likely in mid March.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Comment:
Weekly log chart...
Comment:
With regards to the log chart, some people could argue that BTC held the weekly 200 in a sideways consolidation before touching the rising arch. That is true, but I still believe that we are likely to see another spike lower on the RSI, which would be the result of another decline.