The chart pretty much speaks for itself. It goes back to inception, with a focus on the last halving cycle and this one. Relatively convincing fib extensions have the 0.618 from last bull cycle hitting the bottom of the most recent bear market. This trend has existed every cycle since inception. The 0.618 fib extension of a bull run is the bottom of the next bear market. The current cycle has the top fib extension around 154K, with the 0.236, 0.618 and 1.618 at the exact support/resistance zones we are seeing; with that fib extension top touching the logarithmic curve that has passed through the peaks of the previous cycles.
Each cycle has grown slightly in length; with the projected peak of this bull run ending around Q2 2022. This time elapsed to market tops is calculated from the algebraic interpolation of the lengthening of previous cycles.
Things to watch out for are support at level 50 for longer time frame RSI values. Another item of concern is the very large bearish divergence occurring in the RSI at longer time frames, which has not happened previous cycles. Conversely, these low RSI values relative to the current price indicates that there is a lot of room for RSI to grow; ie we are not constrained in upwards price action by an already astronomic RSI value.
I would place my bets on a market peak of ~154K, and a subsequent bottom at 29K. In the event of a market slide down 40K is a substantial support zone, with orders scattered between 29K and 40K a very risk averse accumulation tactic.
Each cycle has grown slightly in length; with the projected peak of this bull run ending around Q2 2022. This time elapsed to market tops is calculated from the algebraic interpolation of the lengthening of previous cycles.
Things to watch out for are support at level 50 for longer time frame RSI values. Another item of concern is the very large bearish divergence occurring in the RSI at longer time frames, which has not happened previous cycles. Conversely, these low RSI values relative to the current price indicates that there is a lot of room for RSI to grow; ie we are not constrained in upwards price action by an already astronomic RSI value.
I would place my bets on a market peak of ~154K, and a subsequent bottom at 29K. In the event of a market slide down 40K is a substantial support zone, with orders scattered between 29K and 40K a very risk averse accumulation tactic.