BTC/USD Elliott Wave Analysis Monthly Chart
Here is my Elliott Wave analysis of past cycle tops and bottoms along with projections for future wave counts.
We can see some very interesting fractals regarding the date ranges between the Bitcoin halving events and the corresponding tops and bottoms.
Bitcoin's very first halving event was in November 2012 and it took ~365 days to reach the market cycle top followed by ~516 days to hit the market cycle bottom.
It's interesting that starting with the second halving event in July 2016 the fractal reversed in that it now took Bitcoin ~518 days to reach it market cycle top followed by taking ~365 days to reach its market cycle bottom.
With this historical fractal in mind, I'm projecting that ~518 days after the upcoming halving in Apr 2024 we will see the Bitcoin price completing the Wave 3 count and marking the market cycle top at ~$79K. This top aligns with Steve's 5.3 theory and would also align with the white median line on Steve's Bear Market Tops & Bull Market Tops indicator if it maintains its current trajectory. Now from this top, I'm projecting that Bitcoin will complete the Wave 4 count ~365 days after hence marking the market cycle bottom at ~$31K. This bottom aligns with the upper green band on Steve's Bear Market Tops & Bull Market Tops indicator if it continues its current trajectory and is also critical support.
Also with this fractal, I'm projecting that ~518 days after the halving in April 2028 we will see the Bitcoin price completing the Wave 5 count and marking the market cycle top at ~149K. This top aligns with the lower red band on Steve's Bear Market Tops & Bull Market Tops indicator if it continues its current trajectory.
Happy trading!
We can see some very interesting fractals regarding the date ranges between the Bitcoin halving events and the corresponding tops and bottoms.
Bitcoin's very first halving event was in November 2012 and it took ~365 days to reach the market cycle top followed by ~516 days to hit the market cycle bottom.
It's interesting that starting with the second halving event in July 2016 the fractal reversed in that it now took Bitcoin ~518 days to reach it market cycle top followed by taking ~365 days to reach its market cycle bottom.
With this historical fractal in mind, I'm projecting that ~518 days after the upcoming halving in Apr 2024 we will see the Bitcoin price completing the Wave 3 count and marking the market cycle top at ~$79K. This top aligns with Steve's 5.3 theory and would also align with the white median line on Steve's Bear Market Tops & Bull Market Tops indicator if it maintains its current trajectory. Now from this top, I'm projecting that Bitcoin will complete the Wave 4 count ~365 days after hence marking the market cycle bottom at ~$31K. This bottom aligns with the upper green band on Steve's Bear Market Tops & Bull Market Tops indicator if it continues its current trajectory and is also critical support.
Also with this fractal, I'm projecting that ~518 days after the halving in April 2028 we will see the Bitcoin price completing the Wave 5 count and marking the market cycle top at ~149K. This top aligns with the lower red band on Steve's Bear Market Tops & Bull Market Tops indicator if it continues its current trajectory.
Happy trading!