HOW THE HALVENING REALLY AFFECTS THE BITCOIN PRICE!!!
Hello everybody, this is my first time posting anything on tradingview. This read will only take 10 minutes of your time and I hope you will be educated a bit by this piece of information. Please support my idea by LIKING as it took me a while to prepare. It also motivates me to post more setups in the future. Thanks.
I came across this idea as I was looking at the bitcoin price after the third halvening and I've been trying to piece it all together in the couple of days or so. Well, for my brief history in crypto is I jumped into BTC back in 2015 as a long term hodler and from early 2017 is when I started learning market analysis hence becoming the trader I am now.
Back to the analysis. During the first halvening in 2012 November the 28th, bitcoin was trading at approximately $12.5 and up to that moment 10.5 million BTC (210,000 X 50 BTC) in total were already mined. Now according to the algorithm programmed by Satoshi Nakamoto himself (themselves? who cares?), it was expected that 210,000 more blocks will be mined by the time of the second halvening. That equates to (210,000 X 25 BTC) = 5.25 million more BTC. So, just to keep the price at $12.5 would have required an injection of $65.6 million more into the market before the next halvening. This was half of bitcoin's market cap at the time, this fact unthinkable both then and now, isn't it? Now if this amount was added around the time of the halvening it would have roughly given the market a $6.25 price boost to almost $19. Here it gets very interesting as since we first got a weekly close above $19 on the week ending on 28th January 2013 we NEVER (not even once) did close a weekly candle below that mark. From the first halvening, the first ULTIMATE support $19 was born. This phenomenon also indicates the strong bitcoin demand at the time.
Moving on to the second halvening on the 9th of July 2016, I remember(kidding) bitcoin changing hands at $660 and a total of 15.75 million BTC had already been mined then. As previously explained, it was expected that 210,000 more blocks will be mined by the time of the third halvening. That equates to (210,000 X 12.5 BTC) = 2.6 million BTC more. Maintaining the price at $660 would have required cash flow in the magnitude of about $1.7 billion into the market before the 2020 halvening. And if this amount was added around that date it would have taken the price to the moon (sorry ahem!) at the region of $770. We initially got a weekly close above $770 four months later on the latter stages of November 2016 and again NEVER closed weekly below the price. From the second halvening, the second ULTIMATE support $770 was born. The high BTC demand checkbox was still ticked.
Coming to where we are, the third halvening, we now really remember closing the day at $9600 with more than 18.3 million BTC in circulation. 1.3 million BTC will have been mined at the year 2024, probably when the fourth halvening will take place. If $12.6 billion were to be added to the bitcoin market cap, the price would still be $9600 on the next halvening day. But, add that $12.6 billion now and that should put us at $10,300 the third ULTIMATE support. We now wait to close a weekly candle above this support (that the price never retraces to) and you've got yourself your NEXT PARABOLIC MOVE you know and love.
i won't write all this without spicing its conclusion with a prediction of course. Unfortunately, not anything to do with the price as we know how those age (McAfee cough cough!). But, if the trend was to be adhered, the next BIG BITCOIN PUMP might begin on this year's holiday season (November or December) at the latest. Bullish.
I came across this idea as I was looking at the bitcoin price after the third halvening and I've been trying to piece it all together in the couple of days or so. Well, for my brief history in crypto is I jumped into BTC back in 2015 as a long term hodler and from early 2017 is when I started learning market analysis hence becoming the trader I am now.
Back to the analysis. During the first halvening in 2012 November the 28th, bitcoin was trading at approximately $12.5 and up to that moment 10.5 million BTC (210,000 X 50 BTC) in total were already mined. Now according to the algorithm programmed by Satoshi Nakamoto himself (themselves? who cares?), it was expected that 210,000 more blocks will be mined by the time of the second halvening. That equates to (210,000 X 25 BTC) = 5.25 million more BTC. So, just to keep the price at $12.5 would have required an injection of $65.6 million more into the market before the next halvening. This was half of bitcoin's market cap at the time, this fact unthinkable both then and now, isn't it? Now if this amount was added around the time of the halvening it would have roughly given the market a $6.25 price boost to almost $19. Here it gets very interesting as since we first got a weekly close above $19 on the week ending on 28th January 2013 we NEVER (not even once) did close a weekly candle below that mark. From the first halvening, the first ULTIMATE support $19 was born. This phenomenon also indicates the strong bitcoin demand at the time.
Moving on to the second halvening on the 9th of July 2016, I remember(kidding) bitcoin changing hands at $660 and a total of 15.75 million BTC had already been mined then. As previously explained, it was expected that 210,000 more blocks will be mined by the time of the third halvening. That equates to (210,000 X 12.5 BTC) = 2.6 million BTC more. Maintaining the price at $660 would have required cash flow in the magnitude of about $1.7 billion into the market before the 2020 halvening. And if this amount was added around that date it would have taken the price to the moon (sorry ahem!) at the region of $770. We initially got a weekly close above $770 four months later on the latter stages of November 2016 and again NEVER closed weekly below the price. From the second halvening, the second ULTIMATE support $770 was born. The high BTC demand checkbox was still ticked.
Coming to where we are, the third halvening, we now really remember closing the day at $9600 with more than 18.3 million BTC in circulation. 1.3 million BTC will have been mined at the year 2024, probably when the fourth halvening will take place. If $12.6 billion were to be added to the bitcoin market cap, the price would still be $9600 on the next halvening day. But, add that $12.6 billion now and that should put us at $10,300 the third ULTIMATE support. We now wait to close a weekly candle above this support (that the price never retraces to) and you've got yourself your NEXT PARABOLIC MOVE you know and love.
i won't write all this without spicing its conclusion with a prediction of course. Unfortunately, not anything to do with the price as we know how those age (McAfee cough cough!). But, if the trend was to be adhered, the next BIG BITCOIN PUMP might begin on this year's holiday season (November or December) at the latest. Bullish.
Comment:
IT HAS HAPPENED!!!