BNT:BTC - An interesting mixture of Bullish and Bearish signs!
Ok let’s have a look at BNT:BTC on the daily log chart!
Back on the 29th of March we finally found a bottom which we subsequently tested 5 times over the proceeding 7 days confirming it as support. Since then we have had a bullish crossover of the short term moving average (EMA 12) over the longer term moving average (EMA 26) around the 14th of April (green circle) propelling us upwards and through the 23.6% Fib like butter through a knife!
We have since trended higher and blasted through the 38.2% Fib (this was expected given it had previously provided support in Mid-February). We are currently trading well above both the EMA 12 and EMA 26 and looking set for a test of the 50% Fib level. We last tested this as confirmed resistance back on 26th of Feb; and given RSI has just crossed over to oversold (red circle), it is likely we will find some strong resistance here again.
Although the MACD is trending above the signal line, there is not a huge amount of momentum and it appears to be slowing down; which likewise confirms a likely retest of the 50% Fib. The flip side to this is that there has not been a lot of sell volume and buyers have been out in force. One thing we need to look out for though is that buyers who got in during the bottom might be seeking to offload shortly especially seeing as though we are oversold on the RSI and Accumulation/Distribution is trending downwards. We also have some interesting candlestick patterns potentially emerging including a Dark Cloud Cover on the 30 minute chart (at time of writing), a Doji Star Bearish and a Gravestone Doji on the daily.
If the 50% Fib does provide resistance, it is a good chance we will find some good support back on the 38.2% Fib and bounce back off it after a short period of consolidation (and waiting for the EMA 12 and EMA 26 to catch back up and give us even more support). Note: This is the scenario outlined by the red arrows. If this does occur we could potentially form a cup and handle pattern (shown in black) which will actually take us higher than scenario 1 (up to around 0.00021850 which is a 43% increase from current prices)! However, if we do break through the 50% Fib without finding any resistance (green arrows scenario) then there is not a lot to hold us back until the 78.6% Fib level.
In summary we have an interesting mixture of some very bullish and some very bearish indicators. I will be patiently waiting neutral and make a long trade if we can confirm above the 50% Fib and take profits just before the 78.6% Fib; or alternatively if the 50% Fib provides enough resistance waiting for a confirmed bounce (and good indication the down fall is over from other technical indicators including a potential cup and handle pattern) back off the 38.2% Fib. Let's be clear though, overall I am bullish long term - I am just waiting to decide where and when I make my trade depending on how this plays out over the coming days!
Trade safe!
Cheers
Back on the 29th of March we finally found a bottom which we subsequently tested 5 times over the proceeding 7 days confirming it as support. Since then we have had a bullish crossover of the short term moving average (EMA 12) over the longer term moving average (EMA 26) around the 14th of April (green circle) propelling us upwards and through the 23.6% Fib like butter through a knife!
We have since trended higher and blasted through the 38.2% Fib (this was expected given it had previously provided support in Mid-February). We are currently trading well above both the EMA 12 and EMA 26 and looking set for a test of the 50% Fib level. We last tested this as confirmed resistance back on 26th of Feb; and given RSI has just crossed over to oversold (red circle), it is likely we will find some strong resistance here again.
Although the MACD is trending above the signal line, there is not a huge amount of momentum and it appears to be slowing down; which likewise confirms a likely retest of the 50% Fib. The flip side to this is that there has not been a lot of sell volume and buyers have been out in force. One thing we need to look out for though is that buyers who got in during the bottom might be seeking to offload shortly especially seeing as though we are oversold on the RSI and Accumulation/Distribution is trending downwards. We also have some interesting candlestick patterns potentially emerging including a Dark Cloud Cover on the 30 minute chart (at time of writing), a Doji Star Bearish and a Gravestone Doji on the daily.
If the 50% Fib does provide resistance, it is a good chance we will find some good support back on the 38.2% Fib and bounce back off it after a short period of consolidation (and waiting for the EMA 12 and EMA 26 to catch back up and give us even more support). Note: This is the scenario outlined by the red arrows. If this does occur we could potentially form a cup and handle pattern (shown in black) which will actually take us higher than scenario 1 (up to around 0.00021850 which is a 43% increase from current prices)! However, if we do break through the 50% Fib without finding any resistance (green arrows scenario) then there is not a lot to hold us back until the 78.6% Fib level.
In summary we have an interesting mixture of some very bullish and some very bearish indicators. I will be patiently waiting neutral and make a long trade if we can confirm above the 50% Fib and take profits just before the 78.6% Fib; or alternatively if the 50% Fib provides enough resistance waiting for a confirmed bounce (and good indication the down fall is over from other technical indicators including a potential cup and handle pattern) back off the 38.2% Fib. Let's be clear though, overall I am bullish long term - I am just waiting to decide where and when I make my trade depending on how this plays out over the coming days!
Trade safe!
Cheers