BTC.D looks pretty bearish (read: alt-season to continue)


This post is a sister post to my recent Total2 post which seems to be almost mindlessly bullish . That idea, combined with the bearishness I see in BTC .D, suggest that Alts are going to be outperforming to the upside in a big way.

The first key structure is the black flagpole which is shown on the trendbased fib extension in black. The TA is pretty simple. Most flagpoles fall short and 1.618 (in standard, not log scale) is down by 28% dominance. Secondly we have the blue descending triangle that we can watch out for. Support was already found twice at the 40% level and it seems that the W pattern that the bulls may have been looking out for isn't going to materialize just yet. So BTC .D is in this in-between pattern with regards to bullishness.

So what do I rely on? The common trading adage "The trend is your friend until the end. We came into ths consolidation pattern bearishly so we have a increased chance of leaving it bearishly. The triangle full performance target would be at 30%, close to our flagpole target. Midway between the triangle support and the 30 level is the 1.618 extension level of the triangle. I would not be surprised at all to see another bear flag in there.

Finally there is some hidden bearish divergence on the MACD histogram and the MACD itself is below zero. Hidden bearish divergence increases the chance that MACD cross will be bearishly sustained so we could see quite the drop. Obviously this bearish divergence isn't as pronounced as the divergence observed in late 2017/early 2018 but it is there still.