Bitcoin & The Elliott Wave Guideline of Alternation In Effect
The Elliott Wave Guidelines of Alternation appears to be in full effect in BTCUSD - that is if the bottom of what appears to be a wave 4 is in.
Wave 1
After the end of the bear market, we got what looks like a wave 1 impulse. Wave 2 is the first major corrective phase, which is where our story of alternation begins.
Wave 2
In Elliott Wave Theory, wave 2 retraces most of wave 1. Wave 1 began at $3K and wave 2 ended at $4K - I'd say that fits the bill pretty well. Black Thursday also stopped somewhere around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
In regards to alternation:
Wave 3
Wave 3 was extended, which in itself is alternation with wave 1 in effect.
Wave 4
In Elliott Wave Theory, wave 4 retraces much of wave 3, but shouldn't overlap with wave 1. Meaning those waiting for $13,800 or lower Bitcoin were always going to be left waiting. I realize that the correction did not "feel" flat or "sideways" but compared to how much wave 2 wiped out wave 1, wave 4 didn't do anywhere near the damage to wave 3 by comparison.
Wave 5
We'll soon find out if the above is enough to provide us with a roadmap of if a wave 5 is coming. If Bitcoin finds itself below $13,800 on a closing basis, throw this idea away - it would be invalidated. If not, the move will take the market by surprise who are expecting some long, drawn out accumulation phase, because that's what's been happening since 2018. This would be the grande finale in BTC for a while and a vicious bear market should follow unlike what this market has seen before in terms of degree.
Wave 1
After the end of the bear market, we got what looks like a wave 1 impulse. Wave 2 is the first major corrective phase, which is where our story of alternation begins.
Wave 2
In Elliott Wave Theory, wave 2 retraces most of wave 1. Wave 1 began at $3K and wave 2 ended at $4K - I'd say that fits the bill pretty well. Black Thursday also stopped somewhere around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
In regards to alternation:
- Wave 2 I believe was COMPLEX as a double zig-zag labeled as WXY.
Wave 2 was SHARP due to how much it retraced and how deep it went.
Wave 2 was much shorter at 250 days - this was a correction via PRICE
Wave 2's first sub-waves was longer, and the second set of sub-waves were very short
Note: In wave 4, almost all of these are flipped
Wave 3
Wave 3 was extended, which in itself is alternation with wave 1 in effect.
Wave 4
In Elliott Wave Theory, wave 4 retraces much of wave 3, but shouldn't overlap with wave 1. Meaning those waiting for $13,800 or lower Bitcoin were always going to be left waiting. I realize that the correction did not "feel" flat or "sideways" but compared to how much wave 2 wiped out wave 1, wave 4 didn't do anywhere near the damage to wave 3 by comparison.
- Wave 4 I believe was SIMPLE as an expanded flat labeled as ABC.
Wave 4 was FLAT due to how much it retraced and how deep it went.
Wave 4 was much longer at 575 days - this was a correction via TIME (which is actually more painful)
Wave 4 first sub-waves was short, and the second set of sub-waves (five-wave impulse down) were very very very long.
Note: These notes are complete opposite of the notes of wave 2.
Wave 5
We'll soon find out if the above is enough to provide us with a roadmap of if a wave 5 is coming. If Bitcoin finds itself below $13,800 on a closing basis, throw this idea away - it would be invalidated. If not, the move will take the market by surprise who are expecting some long, drawn out accumulation phase, because that's what's been happening since 2018. This would be the grande finale in BTC for a while and a vicious bear market should follow unlike what this market has seen before in terms of degree.
CoinChartist is run by Tony "The Bull", a level 3 CMT student & technical analyst fascinated w/ Elliott Wave Principle, Hurst Cycle Theory, W.D. Gann, Japanese Candlesticks, & other classical charting methods. Visit coinchartist.io for free TA education!
