Bitcoin Primary Trend = BULLISH & It's Official! ***UPDATE***
On February 1st 2023 I posted this idea: Bitcoin Primary Trend = BULLISH & It's Official!
I said;
"The weekly time frame demonstrates that Bitcoin's price broke through and closed ABOVE the prior downtrend's trendline! In my book that make's it official that the prior primary correction has terminated. Bitcoin's history agrees with my assessment. That's not to say that Bitcoin won't experience corrections in this current NEW Primary uptrend. In fact I believe Bitcoin is more than due for at least a 38.2% correction."
I'll repeat/requote the last sentence:
"That's not to say that Bitcoin won't experience corrections in this current NEW Primary uptrend. In fact I believe Bitcoin is more than due for at least a 38.2% correction."
This meant that a correction of the new bull trend could bring price back underneath the prior downtrend line but that would not suggest that a continuation of the prior downtrend resumed according to my perspective.
This update demonstrates that I believe Bitcoin has arrived at that juncture on the weekly time frame. I believe the completion of a 5 wave bullish move has occurred and is due to correct and could potentially breach the prior downtrend line that became support, temporarily. The current candlestick pattern appears to be suggesting that sentiment has reversed from Bullish to Bearish at the 13th weekly termination point.
Therefore, even though a minor correction may potentially throw-back price below the prior downtrend line, it does not suggest that the prior downtrend has resumed UNLESS price makes a new low below the November 21 2022 low. In my humble opinion.
Quoted from Hartford Funds:
"Bear markets tend to be short-lived. The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. That’s significantly shorter than the average length of a bull market, which is 991 days or 2.7 years."
Allow me to quote an article on the subject.
August 24 2022
The Average Bear Market Lasts 289 Days. How Long Do We Have Left?
"Let’s play this out then. The bear market in the S&P 500 was confirmed on June 13th 2022, but the market began its slide on January 3rd 2022. With this date as the start of the current official bear market, the average bear market of 289 days means that it would finish on 19th October 2022."
What occurred in October 2022? Both the Dow Jones Industrials & Dow Jones Transportation averages, and both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite reversed, as well as the TSX.
How long does the average Bitcoin Bear Market last?
-If I take the November 2013 peak until the January 2015 trough it equals to approximately 426 days
-If I take the December 2017 peak until the December 2018 trough it equals to approximately 365 days.
So far that's an average of approximately 395.5 days.
-If I take the November 2021 peak until the November 2022 trough it equals to approximately 395 days.
The average Bitcoin Bear Market duration is approximately 395 days(13 Months).
I said;
"The weekly time frame demonstrates that Bitcoin's price broke through and closed ABOVE the prior downtrend's trendline! In my book that make's it official that the prior primary correction has terminated. Bitcoin's history agrees with my assessment. That's not to say that Bitcoin won't experience corrections in this current NEW Primary uptrend. In fact I believe Bitcoin is more than due for at least a 38.2% correction."
I'll repeat/requote the last sentence:
"That's not to say that Bitcoin won't experience corrections in this current NEW Primary uptrend. In fact I believe Bitcoin is more than due for at least a 38.2% correction."
This meant that a correction of the new bull trend could bring price back underneath the prior downtrend line but that would not suggest that a continuation of the prior downtrend resumed according to my perspective.
This update demonstrates that I believe Bitcoin has arrived at that juncture on the weekly time frame. I believe the completion of a 5 wave bullish move has occurred and is due to correct and could potentially breach the prior downtrend line that became support, temporarily. The current candlestick pattern appears to be suggesting that sentiment has reversed from Bullish to Bearish at the 13th weekly termination point.
Therefore, even though a minor correction may potentially throw-back price below the prior downtrend line, it does not suggest that the prior downtrend has resumed UNLESS price makes a new low below the November 21 2022 low. In my humble opinion.
Quoted from Hartford Funds:
"Bear markets tend to be short-lived. The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. That’s significantly shorter than the average length of a bull market, which is 991 days or 2.7 years."
Allow me to quote an article on the subject.
August 24 2022
The Average Bear Market Lasts 289 Days. How Long Do We Have Left?
"Let’s play this out then. The bear market in the S&P 500 was confirmed on June 13th 2022, but the market began its slide on January 3rd 2022. With this date as the start of the current official bear market, the average bear market of 289 days means that it would finish on 19th October 2022."
What occurred in October 2022? Both the Dow Jones Industrials & Dow Jones Transportation averages, and both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite reversed, as well as the TSX.
How long does the average Bitcoin Bear Market last?
-If I take the November 2013 peak until the January 2015 trough it equals to approximately 426 days
-If I take the December 2017 peak until the December 2018 trough it equals to approximately 365 days.
So far that's an average of approximately 395.5 days.
-If I take the November 2021 peak until the November 2022 trough it equals to approximately 395 days.
The average Bitcoin Bear Market duration is approximately 395 days(13 Months).
Trade active:
The weekly Bearish Harami trend reversal signal has been confirmed by price action closing lower.
The assumption is that the trend that began on November 21st 2022 is the start of a new Bull Market, and that price action has completed a 5 wave Bullish cycle that will be followed by a correction. The correction that was assumed to follow has begun and should be deep if it's indeed a reactionary wave 2 correction of a higher degree of the prior 5 fractal waves within a Bullish cycle that is considered to be wave 1 at a higher degree.
Note: The typical psychology & sentiment in a corrective wave 2 of this degree is worse than the psychology & sentiment was during the November 21st 2022 low/Bottom. The assumption that Bitcoin simply produced a Bear trend reactionary move should increase tremendously due to negative news that will encourage such an incorrect impression. Example: Remember the correction that occurred from the December 14th 2022 high in wave 2 at a smaller degree before price went parabolic? Remember the psychology & sentiment? Now the current correction is at a higher degree. Therefore expect psychology and sentiment to be worse. In my humble opinion from my perspective for entertainment purposes.
All the best!
The assumption is that the trend that began on November 21st 2022 is the start of a new Bull Market, and that price action has completed a 5 wave Bullish cycle that will be followed by a correction. The correction that was assumed to follow has begun and should be deep if it's indeed a reactionary wave 2 correction of a higher degree of the prior 5 fractal waves within a Bullish cycle that is considered to be wave 1 at a higher degree.
Note: The typical psychology & sentiment in a corrective wave 2 of this degree is worse than the psychology & sentiment was during the November 21st 2022 low/Bottom. The assumption that Bitcoin simply produced a Bear trend reactionary move should increase tremendously due to negative news that will encourage such an incorrect impression. Example: Remember the correction that occurred from the December 14th 2022 high in wave 2 at a smaller degree before price went parabolic? Remember the psychology & sentiment? Now the current correction is at a higher degree. Therefore expect psychology and sentiment to be worse. In my humble opinion from my perspective for entertainment purposes.
All the best!