If BTC can't break 2951, then history will repeat.

OKCOIN:BTCCNY   Bitcoin / Chinese Yuan
Red lines = everytime MACD (11,24,11) divergence has gone below -10 after being up > +10. As you can plainly see, it's pretty rare that the 1 day MACD is unreliable with these parameters. This recent fall has tried and failed multiple times to get past the 2951CNY mark. If we use 11/10 as a guide BTC             would be going down 20% to around 2330---however I'm at least a little more optimistic that it will, at worst, bounce on the 2450 (or maybe simply 2500) fibonacci support line before climbing back up.
Bear in mind (no pun intended) that the 1 week MACD is due for a drop though, meaning things could get perilous real fast.
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