BTCCNY: Weekly uptrend signal

BTCCHINA:BTCCNY   Bitcoin / Chinese Yuan
BTC is about to confirm a weekly uptrend here, after this week's close. Unless something strange happens and price suddenly drops under 4310 cny , we can expect the signal to trigger an uptrend to 7047.01 give or take, to be reached within the next 8 weeks. I reccomend holding a 15% spot long position, if not already in, you may go long gradually as price drops next.

If not long, or, if you booked some profits like we did, higher, we can enter longs again, if we get a dip to support, between 4600-4700, risking a drop under 4500. The uptrend would still be valid if price retested 4310, but it would make this intermediate term long fail, and postpone the start of this sharp rally we foresee here.

Good luck!

Ivan Labrie.
Comment: Just bought this dip, reentered our core 15% of portfolio spot long.

If we get lower prices, we'll look to enter leveraged long positions on top.


Trade active: Bought more at the dip here, stops at 4500.
Comment: Average fill: 4768, stop 4500
Comment: And up 1.7% on the last trades.

Looking good, up for the week now.
Comment: New weekly high, holding still.
Comment: Check current price, review my comments.
Comment: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-03...

This is dangerous for BTC holders, let's close any leveraged long if you have them, and trim positions to 15% if you didn't yet.
Comment: I doubled my long from 15% to 30% at 4736.
Comment: Sold half of the position at 4767.
Comment: Keep a stop loss at 4500.
Comment: New $BTCCNY key level
Comment: Keep in mind the weekly uptrend duration, as well as the target. Be patient holding the core long position here.

Price will probably hold above 5099 from here onwards.
Comment: This is the last week in the uptrend, if we don't suddenly accelerate to 7047.01, the uptrend might stall, or, we might some kind of pullback.
I'm more inclined to think we will stall after maybe hitting the news key level at 6555, but I'm also open to a retracement, but it won't be easy, or safe to short it. After this week's close, it will still have 3 weeks to confirm the bullish momentum, in the intermediate term, so, better to hold, and simply add if we get some kind of daily or weekly dip.
Hey Ivan,

I'm a BIG fan of yours and like your professionalism.

Do you see a possibility in passing $1,000 this time (before Jan. 2017) or difficult ?

Thanks buddy and wish you all the best :)
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie AhmedAlif8
Thanks for the kind words, I think it is possible yes, we will have to follow the shorter term movement, to trade it effectively, but it's in the realm of the possible, with higher than 50% odds.

Good luck!
+2 Reply
AhmedAlif8 IvanLabrie
You are most welcome, actually I do like you a lot and your politeness.

I wish you can accept me as a new friend of yours :)

Sorry for being off-topic, but I wanted to express how much I like you :)

So in general you are uber bullish if we can say that we will continue the rally, am I right ? If yes, then could you tell me please the recent dip cause, could it be bear trap or profit taking ? I'm not aware about the volume recently to be honest if it's healthy or not.

You doubt as well that we will have a reversal brother, right ?

Sorry for those much questions.

Thank you :)
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie AhmedAlif8
Appreciate the comments, on the contrary.

About the trend, for the moment, to turn outright bearish, we'd need to see price traverse below 4310, which I don't think will happen. We're seeing the dip I had predicted, probably as a result of profit taking, after the people get overexcited about the ETF news, the size and speed of this rally lately, and also became aware of the situation in China, which forces many to invest in BTC to escape stringent capital controls yet to be implemented by the PBOC.

BTC tends to do this kind of movement, where it rallies sharply, drops 5-10% to margin call all future traders, and then resumes the rally, so let's see what happens next. The main reason for expecting a pullback was my research based on the following cues:

#1 If we plot a Linear regression channel, using an arithmetic scale monthly chart, from the bottom, to the top of the rally here, we could have seen price hitting the top of the 2nd standard deviation line.
#2 The daily 'Time at mode' trend signal showed price was overextended, and prone to return to 'revert to the mean'.
#3 News and sentiment were extremely positive, so a wash out was likely.

Now we need to see how deep it goes, for now I reentered my position I had closed, but didn't enter margin longs yet. I plan on entering at the bottom of the pullback when it's confirmed, with more size and a tight stop (like I did on my previous trades which you can see in related ideas).

Hope that helps.
+1 Reply
AhmedAlif8 IvanLabrie
Thank you for your kindness and reply, forgive me if I ask a lot, but I tend to learn and to be honest, I totally understand from you beside your expertise in the scene.

Could you please assist me with those as well.

1. You see this dip is normal as a profit taking brother, right ?

2. How do you see the volume in both the CNY & USD markets, good enough to continue the rally ?

3. What could be our ultimate catalyst before the year's end that could super uber boost the rally ? Trump in the White house, more CNY devaluation or another ?

4. Regarding CNY devaluation, will it remains for too long ? And where do you see the CNY going in the long-term ?

5. As you said in #3, could we define the current dip as a "consolidation" phase in which Bulls are taking their breathe and reload to continue the rally ?

Thank you for your time and understanding my brother, Ivan. :)
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie AhmedAlif8
Ahmed, let's address your points one by one:

1. I think so, mostly flushing of weak longs, a shake out possibly.
2. Volume might be fake in chinese exchanges, but we can rely on Kraken data for it. Looks good enough for a rally.
3. That's hard to say, very hard right now, might be something we can't imagine now.
4. The trend is fairly stable, I don't see it turning around, other than taking a break here and there, regarding USDCNY. Unless there's a major paradigm shift, I'd expect it to remain the same.
5. Excited bulls who jumped in too late are getting shaken out.

That's my take currently, let's see how it goes.
+1 Reply
AhmedAlif8 IvanLabrie
I would like to thank you so much for your answers and patience with me Ivan.

Much appreciated my friend and wish you all the best :)

It seems the rally is continuing back if I'm not mistaken.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie AhmedAlif8
Yes, possibly, I hope you caught the trades I've shares so far.
Good luck my friend.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie IvanLabrie
+1 Reply
AhmedAlif8 IvanLabrie
Right now I'm a HODLER my friend, but I like to learn about the market and where it's going.

I would like to apologize if I was asking too much, it's because of my learning greed and my likeness towards you.

Wish you all the best and expect me to cause you another headache soon :P
+1 Reply
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