Bitcoin' is a global commodity, and hence it trades in various pairs from the BTCCNY' to BTCUSD' and of course BTCEUR'. Since there are fluctuations between the pairs of fiat currencies themselves, we have to be aware of the wave and cycle patterns in the other currency pairs to validate or invalidate a count. Though many follow news, I follow the money, so first we take a look at the EURUSD' pair and see where the flow of money is going.
One reason I give the BTCEUR' more credence then the BTCUSD' is not because it is a better Fiat, clearly it is not, but all the printing done through Quantitative Easing ( ). Do not take my word for it; the chart above is very clear. If I lived in Europe I would be converting Euros into gold', silver', USD' or Bitcoin'. I do not want to own something that can be printed by Xerox' copiers or a house of cards utilizing monetary control to prop up a false economy.
Unlike the BTCUSD' pair BTCEUR' is still a valid pattern, which is likely to result in a rebound to the 9k-10k area. This is not going to happen overnight, and there are numerous hurdles along the way starting with the minor resistance levels of 6405 and 7141. The point is that the current corrective structure is still in tact from a technical perspective.
As Marc pointed out in his article detailing how the EBC' rate decision may be affecting price action, we must always consider the broader perspective of price movement from a global currency perspective. Many are focused on the BTCUSD' pairing, when the BTCEUR' pair is the fundamental driver of the broader market.
18.01.18. 07:00 / CBOE: 11100$ / SHORT
18.01.27. 01:00 / CME: 11000$ / SHORT
18.02.15. 07:00 / CBOE: 9300$ / LONG
18.02.24. 01:00 / CME: 10200$ / LONG
18.03.15. 07:00 / CBOE: 8100$ / SHORT
18.03.31. 01:00 / CME: 6700$ / SHORT
18.04.19. 07:00 / CBOE: 8200$ / LONG
18.04.28. 01:00 / CME: 9300$ / LONG
18.05.17. 07:00 / CBOE: 8300$ / SHORT
18.05.26. 01:00 / CME: 7500$ / SHORT
18.06.14. 07:00 / CBOE: 6300$ / SHORT
18.06.30. 01:00 / CME: ???) / ???
Until now, the closing price of the CME expiration date was lower than that of CBOE in the bear market, and the closing price of the CME expiration date was higher than that of CBOE in the bull market. Assuming this pattern is maintained, June is the continuation of the downside, CBOE lowered the low point on the 14th, and CME on the 30th is expected to lower the bottom. As CME futures expiration date (1 am on June 30) is approaching, we should open up possibility that price will be pushed once more.