However, we should remember how often this pattern has failed in the past months. So many times, there was an inverted structure in the making, and many times, it failed. It looked as if it would burst through the neckline, just to fail in the last minute, and dump.
We are finally approaching the interesting levels that I have been mentioning since weeks and weeks now.
1. The lower logarithmic downtrend resistance connecting the ATH and the 6500 level where the last big dump started.
2. The higher logarithmic downtrend resistance connecting the multiple smaller tops since early 2018, with the 6500 area. This is the stronger of the two.
3. At the area of the upper downtrend resistance (around 4900USD right now, in 1-2 weeks at 4700-4800USD), we also have the upper weekly BBand and the daily MA200.
4. The number of daily transactions is still far away from ATH: https://www.blockchain.com/de/charts/n-t...
Therefore, if the inverted fails, it will bounce off the lower resistance, the low will therefore also be lower, around 1800 USD.
If the inverted succeeds, we might see a nice rally to the upper resistance, as high as 4800 USD. But this resistance is ultra strong, and BTC is very overbought on weekly, still low, no capitulation has yet occured.
Still too many weak hands in BTC , and too many people claiming 3200 has been the bottom. No despair yet! Also, the number of transactions, which I consider one of the strongest metrics for BTC , is still far away from ATH .
All this leads me to believe, that in the best case, BTC reaches 4800, then dumps down to 2400 USD. I see these two scenarios unfold in the coming weeks.
I see almost no chance (of course the chance is not 0%, but still quite low) for BTC going through both resistances, as sorry as I am.
After that final shakeout, we should see a very strong weekly bar. Then the low could be confirmed and finally real reversal can start to happen.
The momet of truth comes nearer and nearer :) Good luck!