Time to Re-evaluate BTC!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Welcome traders!

As you can see, Bitcoin             has gone from Bullish to Bearish almost over night, and just like that the market sentiment switches! It's a testament to how quickly these markets can change in these volatile times. Just how low can we go?

I have switched to linear charts as this gives us a more accurate channel to draw. It is different from my previous TA which was based on Logarithmic charting, but this is why I previously stated that we would have to completely re asses the markets in the event of a bullish to bearish switch. We have capitulated dramatically from the top of the channel, all the way down to the famous . 618 Retracement line. We are currently below the 200 day MA, so things are looking bleak to say the least.

If we can't stay above the .618 line, then I can't imagine that the 0.786 will hold us for long as we will be pretty close the 6k lows from the beginning of February. It's not impossible that we can stay above this low and bounce back, but catching a falling knife is dangerous and I would really want to see some strong buy volume come in to give us any indication of a reversal. If we break 6k, we could go as low as the bottom of the channel, which would be around 3k. I know that sounds drastic, and I hope that this doesn't happen, but panic selling could really set in so it's definitely not out of the realms of possibilities. Hopefully we would find support at 5k with a strong bounce, but as it's so close to 6k I find it hard to believe this level will hold.

Lets hope some strong buying can come in soon, or we can find support above 6k!


Bear flag breakdown. Doesn't look like this bounce was sustained so I'm looking for more downside. Next targets are 7216 if we go below the 0.618.
Comment: Btw guys I actually welcome more downside! The bigger picture is what I'm more concerned about. Cheaper bitcoin = more profits in the future. It's why I previously said that you should NOT enter trades until a breakout above 12k. Cash is your safest bet during these times. I would rather sacrifice a little less bitcoin than risk losing more fiat.

Continue to look bearish . If this is a valid H&S pattern, then targets to the downside could reach $5000 and beyond.

Looks like we are falling through the bear flag and heading lower, I have drawn a green trendline going back as far as July, which could support us if we break the .786 Retracement. Also watching to see if we can get a bounce and more divergence on the RSI, but I don't think it's likely.

We bounced strong off the 0.786 Retracement level with a decent amount of volume. RSI showing divergence on the 4 hour time frame. This could be a temporary bounce back up to the top of the channel, so we will have to see if it's sustained enough. It's likely that we will retrace slightly back to the 0.618 at around 8183, which could be a good buying opportunity for those looking to trade this. We would want to see the bounce starting before entering this sort of trade.

An interesting perspective from a logarithmic view point. Bouncing right of the trend line.
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