Sawcruhteez
Short

Bitcoin Daily Update (day 230)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

I recently posted Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart. It provided new dates and prices for the bottom, however it’s still slightly too early to abandon my predictions from the previous Bitcoin Bubble Comparison]Bitcoin Bubble Comparison: 1 day - 5 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 | Calling for $35 ETH around the same time

Previous analysis / position: “If we breakdown $6,370 then it would confirm the bearish harami as well as the hanging man . If that were to happen I will be prepared with a small stop order set to short $6,369.” / Short USDT:USD’ from 0.968
Patterns: Descending triangle / bearish harami
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,410 | R: $6,454
BTCUSDSHORTS: Really started to look like they will break out of the triangle to the upside. Once volatility picks up so will volume and we should see unprecedented levels of short sellers.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Bullish (price above MA)
Medium term trend (4 week MA | 2 & 32 day MA’s): Bearish | Bearish
Long term trend ( 32 Week | 50 & 128 day): Bearish | Bearish
Overall trend: If daily closes below $6,438 then all will be bearish
Volume: Surprised volatility didn’t continue after the volume spike on the 15th. Now we are back to painfully low levels.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Harami inside a harami. Can we get a 3rd matryoshka doll?
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud acting as strong support at $6,424
TD’ Sequential: Weekly red 2 will fall below a red 1 at $6,086. Placing a stop order there could be a good idea
Visible Range: Gap in volume from $6,246 to $6,371 with 5 day look back
Price action: 24h: -0.1% | 2w: +/- 0 | 1m: +2.95%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA acting as strong resistance
Trendline: Top of descending triangle ~/= $6,725
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Hanging around 50 on most TF’s. 4h is a little overbought
Stoch: Recrossing bearish on 12h, going for retest on daily after creating higher high

Summary: I am closely watching the red trendline on the USDT:USD’ 1 hour chart as well as prior historical support at 0.9642. As long as it stay below those areas then I do not feel very comfortable about holding a short on BTC’ or ETH’.



Furthermore I am strongly expecting the lower wick from October 15th’s candle to get re explored, similar to what followed October 2nd’s candle.



If it has another selloff then BTC’ and other cryptos should get another pump. If it stablizes then I will feel comfortable going back to my normal approach of 99% TA

Nevertheless, trading is about risk reward and properly managing positions. If the r:r is tilted too much in my favor then I will open a large position regardless of what is happening with Tether and I will use a market stop loss if need be.

I posted a chart earlier with a $35 target for ETH:USD and that is a prime example of something that is too favorable to pass up. In the mean time there is an incoming death cross on the 3D chart with the 50 and 200 MA’s. The first close below the 200 MA is what led to my most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison. Only other time this happened was in October of 2014.


Please advise on what best action for 5k tether holding//
Reply
moviestar GlennTarplett
@GlennTarplett, to not hold it. Switch over to another stable coin.
+1 Reply
Sawcruhteez GlennTarplett
@GlennTarplett, I can't advise you on what to do, you will have to make that decision for yourself. You could exchange it for USD on Kraken and eat a ~5% loss, you can buy BTC on your exchange and eat a ~5% loss or you can attempt to hedge your holding by transferring the balance to Kraken and using it as margin to short USDT:USD with 2:1 leverage. If you can enter around $0.97 then that is likely the best option. If Tether tanks then you are hedged. If it stabilizes then you should be able to exit that position at breakeven by buying support. In that circumstance your Tether would still be worth $5,000 and you would just have to eat the fees. Hope that helps!
Reply
GlennTarplett Sawcruhteez
@Sawcruhteez, Many thanks, great advise..
Reply
Last death cross meant 30% coming drop from USD320 to USD200 right?
Meaning strong possibilities we go down strong from now?
+2 Reply
moviestar sebtintinxx85
@sebtintinxx85, hm last time we already were quite down though. Isnt there a ma crossing that indicates that process at an earlier stage?

Regardless, it not only has to cross, but also not to immediately re-cross again and stay down.
+1 Reply
@moviestar, I will check for a ma crossing.
I guess other indicators need to be consulted at the same time and see which one(s) was the most accurate at that time to confirm the drop. Hence we could use the same combinations this time to confirm a potential coming drop.
+1 Reply
@moviestar, There are definitely some MA's and other indicators that will indicate the reversal process at an earlier stage. I like using the 50 and 128 MA crossovers on the daily chart and I also like the check the 4 & 32 MA's on the weekly chart. If the asset is in a hyperwave then a breakdown of the phase 3 or phase 4 trendline will be the first strong indication of a reversal. In the case of Bitcoin that happened on Jan 8 2018 when a weekly candle closed below the trendline. Netflix recently broke down it's phase 4 trendline and I am currently shorting it due to the reliability of hyperwaves. Another good indicator that I have found is the daily Ichimoku cloud have a kumo twist after a strong bull market. That happened around March 4th 2018 for Bitcoin. The longer term MA's are more useful for determining when a trend is expected to continue. If the chart looked exactly the same as it does now but the long term MA's were in a bullish setup then I would be a bull and looking to open longs. The main reason I stay bearish is because of those long term MA's are bearish.
+1 Reply
moviestar Sawcruhteez
@Sawcruhteez, Id say MA50 is too volatile and and might easily recross / keep shifting sides instead of giving a rather clear signal. Imho MA 130 and MA 200 crossing or MA 200 and MA 340 are better suited indicators. these two pairs have already crossed this year as well, but in case of the former the gap hasnt really been that wide and keeps decreasing now already which doesnt have much prognostic value atm. 200 and 340 have crossed 3 months ago, but I dont like that 200 is already shifting a bit into vertical direction again since a few days instead of keeping going down more convincingly. so imho atm signs for either direction are not that clear as we like them to be in terms of MAs.
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