I recently posted Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart. It provided new dates and prices for the bottom, however it’s still slightly too early to abandon my predictions from the previous Bitcoin Bubble Comparison]Bitcoin Bubble Comparison: 1 day - 5 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 | Calling for $35 ETH around the same time
Previous analysis / position: “If we breakdown $6,370 then it would confirm the harami as well as the . If that were to happen I will be prepared with a small stop order set to short $6,369.” / Short USDT:USD’ from 0.968
Patterns: / harami
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,410 | R: $6,454
BTCUSDSHORTS: Really started to look like they will break out of the triangle to the upside. Once picks up so will and we should see unprecedented levels of short sellers.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): (price above MA)
Medium term trend (4 week MA | 2 & 32 day MA’s): |
Long term trend ( 32 Week | 50 & 128 day): |
Overall trend: If daily closes below $6,438 then all will be
Volume: Surprised didn’t continue after the spike on the 15th. Now we are back to painfully low levels.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
analysis: Harami inside a harami. Can we get a 3rd matryoshka doll?
Cloud: 4h cloud acting as strong support at $6,424
TD’ Sequential: Weekly red 2 will fall below a red 1 at $6,086. Placing a stop order there could be a good idea
Visible Range: Gap in from $6,246 to $6,371 with 5 day look back
Price action: 24h: -0.1% | 2w: +/- 0 | 1m: +2.95%
Bands: Daily MA acting as strong resistance
Trendline: Top of ~/= $6,725
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Hanging around 50 on most TF’s. 4h is a little overbought
Stoch: Recrossing on 12h, going for retest on daily after creating higher high
Summary: I am closely watching the red on the USDT:USD’ 1 hour chart as well as prior historical support at 0.9642. As long as it stay below those areas then I do not feel very comfortable about holding a short on BTC’ or ETH’.
Furthermore I am strongly expecting the lower wick from October 15th’s candle to get re explored, similar to what followed October 2nd’s candle.
If it has another selloff then BTC’ and other cryptos should get another pump. If it stablizes then I will feel comfortable going back to my normal approach of 99% TA
Nevertheless, trading is about risk reward and properly managing positions. If the r:r is tilted too much in my favor then I will open a large position regardless of what is happening with Tether and I will use a market stop loss if need be.
I posted a chart earlier with a $35 target for ETH:USD and that is a prime example of something that is too favorable to pass up. In the mean time there is an incoming death cross on the 3D chart with the 50 and 200 MA’s. The first close below the 200 MA is what led to my most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison. Only other time this happened was in October of 2014.
Regardless, it not only has to cross, but also not to immediately re-cross again and stay down.
I guess other indicators need to be consulted at the same time and see which one(s) was the most accurate at that time to confirm the drop. Hence we could use the same combinations this time to confirm a potential coming drop.