Bitcoin Daily Update (day 230)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

I recently posted Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart. It provided new dates and prices for the bottom, however it’s still slightly too early to abandon my predictions from the previous Bitcoin Bubble Comparison]Bitcoin Bubble Comparison: 1 day - 5 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 | Calling for $35 ETH around the same time

Previous analysis / position: “If we breakdown $6,370 then it would confirm the bearish harami as well as the hanging man. If that were to happen I will be prepared with a small stop order set to short $6,369.” / Short USDT:USD’ from 0.968
Patterns: Descending triangle / bearish harami
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,410 | R: $6,454
BTCUSDSHORTS: Really started to look like they will break out of the triangle to the upside. Once volatility picks up so will volume and we should see unprecedented levels of short sellers.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Bullish (price above MA)
Medium term trend (4 week MA | 2 & 32 day MA’s): Bearish | Bearish
Long term trend ( 32 Week | 50 & 128 day): Bearish | Bearish
Overall trend: If daily closes below $6,438 then all will be bearish
Volume: Surprised volatility didn’t continue after the volume spike on the 15th. Now we are back to painfully low levels.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Harami inside a harami. Can we get a 3rd matryoshka doll?
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud acting as strong support at $6,424
TD’ Sequential: Weekly red 2 will fall below a red 1 at $6,086. Placing a stop order there could be a good idea
Visible Range: Gap in volume from $6,246 to $6,371 with 5 day look back
Price action: 24h: -0.1% | 2w: +/- 0 | 1m: +2.95%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA acting as strong resistance
Trendline: Top of descending triangle ~/= $6,725
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Hanging around 50 on most TF’s. 4h is a little overbought
Stoch: Recrossing bearish on 12h, going for retest on daily after creating higher high

Summary: I am closely watching the red trendline on the USDT:USD’ 1 hour chart as well as prior historical support at 0.9642. As long as it stay below those areas then I do not feel very comfortable about holding a short on BTC’ or ETH’.


Furthermore I am strongly expecting the lower wick from October 15th’s candle to get re explored, similar to what followed October 2nd’s candle.


If it has another selloff then BTC’ and other cryptos should get another pump. If it stablizes then I will feel comfortable going back to my normal approach of 99% TA

Nevertheless, trading is about risk reward and properly managing positions. If the r:r is tilted too much in my favor then I will open a large position regardless of what is happening with Tether and I will use a market stop loss if need be.

I posted a chart earlier with a $35 target for ETH:USD and that is a prime example of something that is too favorable to pass up. In the mean time there is an incoming death cross on the 3D chart with the 50 and 200 MA’s. The first close below the 200 MA is what led to my most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison. Only other time this happened was in October of 2014.