The Bitcoin sell-off was highly anticipated as talked about in my private webinars as well as public ideas. We were in a wave 5 leg of a large elliot wave set that has been forming since March, as well as in a wave 5 of its own of this leg up
The sell off was harsh, which was accelerated due to Bitcoin Cash's move which was forseen in the prior days/weeks as well as previous ideas. The fact that we came crashing down to the 0.5 fib of this leg without a bounce so far tells me that we will most certainly be entering a long term correction of the entire run
In the short term, I would be expecting a bounce on Bitcoin possibly up to the 618-786 of this retracement which would be the classic bulltrap zone and secondary best sell target, which would be around 7100 if we can deny the trend we tried to consolidate on and expand to higher prices of 8-10k. Right now we are on a steep downtrend that we are struggling to break, however the larger capital traders/institution are highly limited in where they can play their positions due to liquidity issues and mainly Bitcoin is the only market at the moment for this. Another thing to note is that it is an amazing sign that we are maintaining the collective market cap as well as volume increase which means that the money that has entered us in the recent months does not want to go back to fiat; it wants to stay in the ecosystem and the only safe haven would be the alts above 1 billion market cap in the short term, which we are seeing with nice gains across the board. How far BTC retraces overall is still up in the air, mainly due to fundamentals and the scaling issues we are facing. Would I be surprised if BTC does not get the bounce and just continues to bleed out, absolutely not. As for me, I will be playing a small position in this bull trap and not shorting Bitcoin just yet until we reach higher prices and momentum verifies that we are exhausted. Ideally I would not be taking my profit into fiat and I would be scaling into alts for the moves to come.
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This is such a horrible sign for Bitcoin not being able to bounce. Shows large holders are completely not supporting the price.
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So you can get a clear idea why BTC held the price it did, which was a prior breakout zone. Note we have denied the 0.5 fib exention
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Now we are looking to see what retracement this move can hold. If it can hold the 0.5 which would also coincide with the bottom of the 1hr cloud, we might be able to see a push above
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Ultimately if we can get to that 618-786 zone of the entire retracement as seen in the first chart, that would be a classic sell zone of a bull trap run however I feel too many people would be looking to sell there this time around and the market might not give the opportunity.
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We got the bounce we were looking for as BTC consolidating in an ascending triangle in the 1hr cloud. Currently price is looking to find support above the trendline we have been riding on this wave 5. I still expect a sell off once we get above the 618 of the retracement. There is the potential though always to continue on to new ATH if the market remains bullish however I would still be expecting the sell off in the zone in the near term and then the price would have to battle 7k to confirm hard support and continuation.
