1day chart closes 2 candles under the 200sma 1st time since 2014
It looked as if there was a slight glimmer of a potential bull breakout from this current bear flag on the 4hour chart as the last 4 day candle found a way to close just above the trendline....however we all know that its not an official breakout until we close 1 more additionalc andle above the flag and at the same exact time that 4 hour candle closed above the bear flag trendline the 1 day chart just closed a 2nd confirmation candle below the 200sma for the first time since 2014....definitely not a food sifn...and any positive sentiment the 4hr candle gave buyers is likely to be outweighed by the sentiment the last 2 1 day candles are going to give sellers....Because of this I think probability is high that this next 4 hour candle will not close above the trendline thus invalidating any potential bull breakout from this recent smaller 4 hour bear flag. Further downside is what I anticipate.
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food sifn=good sign the problem with not being able to edit these ideas after I publish is my ideas wil always be riddled with typoes. thanks for your understanding.
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Our current 4 hr candle seems to have found support at the 78.60% blue fibline for the time being.
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so inside the recent bear flag on the 4hr chart, a small bull flag has formed and been triggered as a breakout out on the 1 hr chart...there was a good amount of bullish momentum/volume to go with it as well which allowed it to break upward reaching its target price of the green 50% fib extension line at 8569. WHile that is a great temporary sign for the Bulls in the grander more bearish scheme of things I don't see it sustaining the momentum in the long term....either this 50% fib line will serve as the ultimate resistance for it before it turns back to the bearish momentum...or it will likely bounce off and back down from the ascending green trendline in my opinion. These are the 2 most probable outcomes...because although we've gotten a sudden bullish swing from this small bull flag as well as the bullish divergence from the MACD, at the same time we are still fulfilling a much larger bearish flag breakdown, and the 100SMA just crossed under the 200SMA on the 4 hr which is usually a sign that the path of least resistance will be to the downside. I will remain short until we pull above the green trendline and close above it on the 4 hour chart with a confirmation candle closing above as well.
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We are 1 hour into the current 4 hour chart and we can see that the green 50% fib line is acting as very strong resistance. Been tested several times and we have yet te ven wick above it....if it keeps retesting it it coud find a way to inch above it but for now it's having no luck and likely will remain resistance for at least the current candl.
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update: noticing some bearish divergence on the RSI...this could signal some more immediate downtrend...the current red candles could potentially just be another bull flag forming but the bearish rsi divergence lends credence to the thought that more downside is likely on the way before the bounce back upward....I'm readjusting my limit buy back to around 7749 a compeltely arbitrary number.