We have yet to make our first lower high in this new downtrend on the 4 hour. You can say we have our first lower high at 10563. However, the definition of a lower high is we need to make and confirm a lower low. The lower low confirms the swing. So if you get in now, using 10563 as the swing, you are taking more risk with a reduced probability of success. Reflected in the better risk vs reward.
The better entry is to await the lower low because now the probability of success increases greatly. Sure your risk vs reward may not be better, but trading IS a business of probabilities. That's it.
So we also may have another confluence which is the pattern which shows the transition from one trend to another, in this case an uptrend to a downtrend. The break of the neckline would also confirm the lower high with the lower low.
Yes there is a possibility we do not close under, but I would then watch the 11,000 big resistance/flip zone as outlined previously to break.
Have given my thoughts on cryptos but I will repeat them here:
Alt coins need to attract new buyers. The Hodlers and the average joe trader who jumped in during the mania will want to exit at break even or a little over their entry for small profit. There will be constant selling pressure.
Alt coins either need Bitcoin to make new highs to attract new buyers and interest again OR and more likely to happen, need regulations. Once regulated, institutions and big funds can invest in crypto. They will not do so now because there is no depositor insurance. Mist of these exchanges do not have money to pay everyone out if cryptos pop and many people take profits. They do not require so due to lack of regulations. So regulations will be positive for cryptos, but it defeats the purpose of them being decentralized. Do not kid yourself, digital money is coming. Cryptos are for enslavement as money will be taxed and tracked.
Bitcoin is the one to watch due to China as I have mentioned. This is where Bitcoin may be a safe haven during a recession or confidence crisis but I stress that Precious Metal's should be held for this.
The Chinese elites and the members of the Chinese Communist Party (one in the same really), use Bitcoin as an intermediary whenever the Yuan devalues. Watch the Yuan chart when analyzing Bitcoin . With more capital controls and money fleeing China, more Chinese are using Bitcoin to move large amounts of money as an intermediary (not holding Bitcoin ). I think this will increase as more issues occur in China with agriculture and with their credit issue.