So far, my previous ideas on this ABC correction wave have been pretty darn accurate. Now as we near the end of "a" (or) "c", we examine closely what the next move may be.
On this 4hr chart, I'm showing a lot of sub-wave counts. At the present moment, it isn't altogether clear whether we are seeing the end of the "a" subwave, or if it might extend a bit further even, due to the obvious bear flag that has formed. On the other hand, it is possible to recount the waves so the entire "abc" correction is nearing completion as well. My gut tells me that since we touched down into the red resistance rectangle, but didn't see much of a bounce, the bulls aren't ready to jump back in and push the price higher yet. The price needs to come down a bit further to bring in all those waiting for discounted BTC prices. .5 Fib-level at minimum (7150) would be a great level to expect a bounce. I have drawn my ABC waves to push up to 7800 before the final correction down to the .618 level at 69XX-71XX.
The answer will lie in the small-time frame chart patterns that form, like this bear flag, and the volume, and the ABCDE correction triangles that give us clues as to whether one wave is completed and we are looking at a reversal, or not, and we see a continuation. So far, I'm seeing a continuation, so I'm hedging that we will hit the 7150 .5 Fib level before seeing a bounce back up to 7800. I'll post another pic below with the smaller time frame to take a look at these patterns with better resolution.
What do you think?
Have a Great Day!
On this 4hr chart, I'm showing a lot of sub-wave counts. At the present moment, it isn't altogether clear whether we are seeing the end of the "a" subwave, or if it might extend a bit further even, due to the obvious bear flag that has formed. On the other hand, it is possible to recount the waves so the entire "abc" correction is nearing completion as well. My gut tells me that since we touched down into the red resistance rectangle, but didn't see much of a bounce, the bulls aren't ready to jump back in and push the price higher yet. The price needs to come down a bit further to bring in all those waiting for discounted BTC prices. .5 Fib-level at minimum (7150) would be a great level to expect a bounce. I have drawn my ABC waves to push up to 7800 before the final correction down to the .618 level at 69XX-71XX.
The answer will lie in the small-time frame chart patterns that form, like this bear flag, and the volume, and the ABCDE correction triangles that give us clues as to whether one wave is completed and we are looking at a reversal, or not, and we see a continuation. So far, I'm seeing a continuation, so I'm hedging that we will hit the 7150 .5 Fib level before seeing a bounce back up to 7800. I'll post another pic below with the smaller time frame to take a look at these patterns with better resolution.
What do you think?
Have a Great Day!
Comment:
As I mentioned above, here is a zoomed in view of the bear flag that has formed. This could indicate my subwaves may be off and we haven't seen the end of the "a" wave yet. And it is possible that we relook at the entire correction and see that we are nearing the end of the "c" wave. The keys are in the chart patterns on these smaller time scales. At the present moment, this bear flag indicates another drop down. So if that happens, I will adjust my counts.
Comment:
Well the bear flag has been invalidated as the bulls continue to push this unconvincing bounce upward and higher. It appears that we are still on track with my original abc correction wave and we are indeed on the beginning of the "b" wave. Again, it is possible that "C" has completed and we are now on the 3rd wave of the MACRO EW, but I suspect with the heavy resistance above at 7800, that we will have some struggle to get through that as it also coincides with the pink downtrend line as well. Never Fear! Retracements are healthy, and the bear trend is over!
Comment:
