My previous analysis have been bullish on BTC because I have been looking for some structure on the lower time frames that will show that the upper trendline will be broken. This is not the case, each time a structure is made, it is broken, (I will post the structures and their breaks on the updates of this analysis). If the Alts showed more life, I would be inclined to say that this is accumulation. This may still be accumulation, but this price action looks more like distribution as it is very volatile, and the selling is amplifying. In addition, the alt run, which may not have finished, did not last long. There is no doubt if BTC goes down, the alts are going down to, the average correlation between BTC and the alt's is near 1-1.
The Chart:
If this is a top, the crypto market is still technically in a bear market as this would be a lower high from the previous high which puts BTC at risk for making a lower low. I doubt that will be the case, but the next slow moving trendline is approximately 2k. However, for that to occur BTC needs to break 6900 which is extremely strong support. There is no doubt that there is enough distribution for BTC to make it to that price point and if the support of 9100 is broken, it is unlikely that 8000 will hold as support. The current pattern BTC is in is a descending triangle, which I have mentioned before, with a price objective of approximately 5000. If the descending triangle breaks to the upside, its price objective would barely be above 14000 but that would be enough for a continuation of the bullish trend (So long as price consolidates with 14000 as support).
Descending Triangles:
Descending triangles are not normally seen as a reversal, but they can occur as one. (For Reference) In the stock market, the probability of the sample taken by analyst Bulkowski, is 60% of them breakout to the downside and 40% breakout to the upside, I am not sure on the exacts since I am not at my office with the book as my reference. This triangle also has approximately 47 days until the apex of the triangle where the total time frame for the entire triangle is approximately 136 days and we are currently in the 99th day. Most tringles break out around 3/4 the of the total time frame of the triangle. So we are looking for a break out within the coming weeks. The actual time for the 3/4 marker is 102 days which is only 3 days away.
The RSI:
The RSI is one of my favorite indicators because it is purely based on price action, and it is one of the only leading indicators which has been out for a long duration and has been studied to a high degree. In the RSI it was hard for me to find anything here on the daily in regards to the upper trendline, but, I did find maybe something which resembles a falling wedge. The only thing I am certain of is the lower trendline in regards to that falling wedge. The upper one was... is the saying: "pulled from my ass"?
Previous Analysis:
The Chart:
If this is a top, the crypto market is still technically in a bear market as this would be a lower high from the previous high which puts BTC at risk for making a lower low. I doubt that will be the case, but the next slow moving trendline is approximately 2k. However, for that to occur BTC needs to break 6900 which is extremely strong support. There is no doubt that there is enough distribution for BTC to make it to that price point and if the support of 9100 is broken, it is unlikely that 8000 will hold as support. The current pattern BTC is in is a descending triangle, which I have mentioned before, with a price objective of approximately 5000. If the descending triangle breaks to the upside, its price objective would barely be above 14000 but that would be enough for a continuation of the bullish trend (So long as price consolidates with 14000 as support).
Descending Triangles:
Descending triangles are not normally seen as a reversal, but they can occur as one. (For Reference) In the stock market, the probability of the sample taken by analyst Bulkowski, is 60% of them breakout to the downside and 40% breakout to the upside, I am not sure on the exacts since I am not at my office with the book as my reference. This triangle also has approximately 47 days until the apex of the triangle where the total time frame for the entire triangle is approximately 136 days and we are currently in the 99th day. Most tringles break out around 3/4 the of the total time frame of the triangle. So we are looking for a break out within the coming weeks. The actual time for the 3/4 marker is 102 days which is only 3 days away.
The RSI:
The RSI is one of my favorite indicators because it is purely based on price action, and it is one of the only leading indicators which has been out for a long duration and has been studied to a high degree. In the RSI it was hard for me to find anything here on the daily in regards to the upper trendline, but, I did find maybe something which resembles a falling wedge. The only thing I am certain of is the lower trendline in regards to that falling wedge. The upper one was... is the saying: "pulled from my ass"?
Previous Analysis:
