This first image is of the current (RED area). We entered into the side of this cloud, meaning we will come out on top.
I will show, going back in history on the , all the way back to 2013, where we see this pattern continues to happen the same way. I reviewed this yesterday and I found one instance out of about 15-20 where the pattern breaks down.
Keep in mind, this is only on the 1D chart. 4H and other charts will act slightly different. But 1D charts have at least a 4 year crypto history we can review and verify the probability.
Stay tuned for the next images.
Sept 3rd, 2017
Feb 17th, 2016
Sept 23, 2015
May 10, 2015
Feb 14th, 2015
Nov 12, 2014
May 20, 2014
Hopefully this gives you some good insight as to what I look at for Ichimoku on 1D charts with crypto. All standard Ichimoku settings (9, 26, 52, 26).
Notice the uptrend length and the downtrend would break at the same time as my curve breaks above $10.6k. I'm not concerned about this drop, even though I lost a nice chunk of my diversified portfolio yesterday.
I believe in Bitcoin and I will wait for it to rise again, cuz you can't kill the Bitcoin.
The news that may hold us down and break this cycle unless you bulls get in there, buy and hodl.
Also, comparing recent sell off volume to prior buy volume around the end of last year, we're still not selling extremely heavily. This leads me to believe that the price will likely stabilize and go sideways for a bit, before moving back upward while the Gox sell off continues, allowing Gox to liquidate their BTC.
We also see that in the recent sell off volume, there was a decent spike of buys, which likely happened because people are seeing that we're near the bottom of this phase.
Thinking about it, we either have a large wedge or a massive bullish pennant forming and if we break above this pennant/wedge, then the market could really go crazy.
Based on my chart, it's possible we could break out of this wedge around the end of March (2 weeks) and that will set the stage for some very nice rallies.
That being said, to get to that point, we'll have to gain 25% before we break out.
If btc/bch are mainly exposed here it’ll be interesting to see if other alts get a boost once the dust settles as a consequence..