BTC: No looking back?

I'm interested in contrary opinions, and contrary indications. But BTC looks strong to me, here on the 4hr chart, and I currently — and tentatively — expect this to continue and confirm on larger timeframes. I also expect alts to begin to feel these tailwinds, if indeed BTC is back on track.

1) Has reclaimed and is above all key EMAs.

2) Conversion baseline cross and above the Ichimoku cloud.

3) Holding above the 0.386 on a local Fibonacci. Hugging the line of the 3.0 on the macro Fibonacci. Both are positive signals of an uptrend.

4) BTC respecting an ascending channel so far.

5) If BTC breaks out from the bull flag channel, 60k+ is in view, which would put BTC above the 0.702 on the whole April correction, which would confirm in my view that this is not a retracement rally from a cycle top, but simply a correction along the way.

6) It's looking increasingly likely that BTC is not returning to backtest 50k. The only way I could see that now happening is if the bull flag BTC is currently printing breaks to the downside. Then we might see a H&S pattern form, which would put 50k back in view. Not impossible, but it would necessitate strong and sustained sell pressure that would need to play out over one week at least.

7) Despite BTC having printed a long legged doji candle on the monthly for April, the 21 weekly EMA wasn't broken, or even tapped. April may signal the top is close, but May could surge to a new ATH.

8) Contrary forces: the DXY is currently experiencing a fairly strong bounce from 90.427 to 91.297 currently. But the US government doesn't appear particularly concerned with maintaining dollar strength, so this could be a local bounce that is reversed.

Feel free to comment.

Particularly interested to hear from those who see indications of more downside potential.

Comment:

02 May 2021 19:56:24: This is more or less he fractal I see playing out right now, but even a drop to 50 still fits within the macro channel I see as in play. It would only delay the ascent.

Comment:

03 May 2021 00:19:13: First indication that there may be more downside in play, as BTC pushes outside the main ascending channel. This is not definitive, as channels are neither always reliable, and are subjective in terms of how they are placed. Breaks to the downside can also be quickly reversed. Nonetheless, an important development to take note of.

Comment:

03 May 2021 00:30:25: If BTC were to continue a downside movement from where it currently is, we may see printed a H&S pattern, with a potential downside target of 50k, which would also constitute a retest of the bottom of the macro channel it is in, and which dates back to 11 December 2020.

Comment:

03 May 2021 00:41:10: If BTC does continue to the downside (and it's too early to say that it will), I would be reasonably confident that this would be a combined liquidity grab, shaking out current longs, and was a simple backtest to affirm previous support. That said, Wave 6 of the seven-wave movement that I'm looking to see play out should, normally, be significantly deeper than the previous corrections (waves 2 and 4). The next macro Fibonacci levels down are at 45.7, 43.1 and 38.9. Even hitting this lowest level cannot yet be completely ruled out.

Comment:

03 May 2021 02:35:43: Hopefully we see more, but to me this is confirmation enough. Second bull flag printed with upside breakout

Comment:

04 May 2021 07:14:58: I exited trades yesterday as the local H&S was forming. On this snapshot you can see the measured move and how it broke the channel, which I had already adjusted several times. It's good to be reminded that channel bottoms are not hard floors in all cases; rather, they're indicators to show you the strength or weakness of a trend. Before going to sleep around 7hrs ago I marked out two info lines that roughly show how far price in April got below the 200 EMA. These lines show that a return to 50 is not impossible. Indeed, it now appears likely. I said earlier that if price did not each the 0.702, I would still regard BTC as an in macro uptrend. And I still do. But I did see one chart where another TradvingView author had measured the 2017 retracement rally as reaching the 65% level. This is also marked on this chart. I will double check, but if verified, it would suggest that we cannot yet discount that 65 was the local top for bitcoin. This would nullify my seven-wave scenario to 80k. He was using the BLX chart. I need to check this against the usual USD charts.

Comment:

04 May 2021 08:44:10: Re-checked 2017 and the other author, in my view, didn't position the Fibonacci correctly, so I don't see any additional confluence yet for the proposition that the cycle peak is already in.

Comment:

04 May 2021 08:46:50: As I've mentioned on other charts, and above, I'm not a fan of drawing channels, especially on lower timeframes. They're very subjective, and sometimes plain misleading. Yesterday and last night's price action on BTC is a good example. Much more preferable is to take a channel or a trendline only as an invalidation measure. At any rate, structure would suggest a backtest of 50, After the second bull flag broke above, as I wrote on an earlier update here, I leaned towards this backtest not happening. But price action late yesterday and last night puts this backtest back in view. What would that channel look like? It might look like the following. But again, this is subjective and I wouldn't base a trade, either way, off a projected channel alone.