The Regressive Nature of Bitcoin - 10+ yr forecast
Good morning.
With the markets crashing and prices not reaching levels many had called for, and me having a dream last night that BTC reached $0.50 per coin - yes, I was stacking those sats! - it's time to zoom out and see how far we've come, and think about where we may go in the future.
There are many predictions I have seen, but most models do not truly show the regressiveness of Bitcoin. I know many people will hate this, but here it is. Bitcoin will do a 10x.....in about 10 years!
It was a well known fact that Bitcoin becomes less volatile over time - less extreme highs and lows. But how much? This is what I sought to discover and I found a - somewhat - trend.
**NOTE**
I did not include the first bull run from 2013 because it was a shorter bull run and the asset was much less mature, so these prehistoric times were unreliable to me.
So, how did I get this forecast?
I took the difference in gains between the last two major cycles and saw the difference in percentage price gains (% gains 2 / % gains 1) was lower over time. If then you found the ratio of this figure by getting:
(% gains 3 / % gains 2) / (% gains 2 / percentage gains 1), then you will typically get a ratio between 1.27 - 1.3
I then laid down fibs from the tops to the bottoms and paired those two theories together to draw out these regressive trend lines.
My theory after this cycle is that Bitcoin price will always disappoint short-term holders, and that you need to be smart and realistic with your expectations, and remember that Bitcoin will never have the price moves it used to. This is just a sign of the asset becoming more mature. Also, remember this is a long game. Anyone in Bitcoin for 4 years WILL make money.
Cheers for reading, and let me know your thoughts on my 280K target.
Tchau
With the markets crashing and prices not reaching levels many had called for, and me having a dream last night that BTC reached $0.50 per coin - yes, I was stacking those sats! - it's time to zoom out and see how far we've come, and think about where we may go in the future.
There are many predictions I have seen, but most models do not truly show the regressiveness of Bitcoin. I know many people will hate this, but here it is. Bitcoin will do a 10x.....in about 10 years!
It was a well known fact that Bitcoin becomes less volatile over time - less extreme highs and lows. But how much? This is what I sought to discover and I found a - somewhat - trend.
**NOTE**
I did not include the first bull run from 2013 because it was a shorter bull run and the asset was much less mature, so these prehistoric times were unreliable to me.
So, how did I get this forecast?
I took the difference in gains between the last two major cycles and saw the difference in percentage price gains (% gains 2 / % gains 1) was lower over time. If then you found the ratio of this figure by getting:
(% gains 3 / % gains 2) / (% gains 2 / percentage gains 1), then you will typically get a ratio between 1.27 - 1.3
I then laid down fibs from the tops to the bottoms and paired those two theories together to draw out these regressive trend lines.
My theory after this cycle is that Bitcoin price will always disappoint short-term holders, and that you need to be smart and realistic with your expectations, and remember that Bitcoin will never have the price moves it used to. This is just a sign of the asset becoming more mature. Also, remember this is a long game. Anyone in Bitcoin for 4 years WILL make money.
Cheers for reading, and let me know your thoughts on my 280K target.
Tchau