dRends35
Short

Bitcoin repeating oscillations, fib levels

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin seems to be cycling with symmetry, although duration is increasing. Currently it is respecting the 0.618 fib level of the previous oscillation (as did previous) and there is plenty of bearish divergence on the 4H. After the previous twin peak, Bitcoin sold off 42%, and 45% before that. So after if Bitcoin continues pattern, it could double top after this retracement at around $8500-$8700 and then sell off 39% to approx $5130, with a bear flag abc correction along the way. New lows could trigger selling pressure and it would be interesting to see reaction of 5K breached.
Comment:
Comment: A 9 on the weekly indicates reversal, but now another 9 looks to be forming a flag on the daily, though perhaps a reversal will form from here. The 9 looks to have come higher up comparing to previous oscillation so it could be a top, or close to top


Comment: A nine on the daily chart finds the top and down we go again. The amount of symmetry in this downward move is quite something, and noticed. Obviously the market making move may be to go against the herd, but at this point, the bullish hope was very short lived, the top was brief, and Bitcoin maintains the pattern that is becoming obvious to everyone. Bitcoin and crypto look very weak at this point.

Comment: Another bearish engulfing candle to end the week.
Comment: A 9 found the top and a 9 found the adam shaped bounce/bottom.

Comment: 14 candles on the daily chart since $8300 and all of them are bearish except for one @ 9/8 where some heroic bulls stepped in for a pull back that didn't happen, which was followed by an engulfing candle continuing a strong downtrend.

It will be interesting to see what kind of reaction there will be, if any, to Bitcoin testing yearly lows again. With such a strong downtrend it would seem unlikely to resist a re-test. A bounce would seem likely as many heroes will want to buy the low. But this may become a pull back before the trend continues down towards 5K, where Bitcoin could perhaps make yet another corrective rally and many will call the bottom yet again.

The alts are bleeding out with significant support breached, which will leave Bitcoin to sail alone with no significant support coming from alts. Crypto @ $209bn
Comment: Triple tops and ascending chop. Perhaps this is a flag before the next elevator down to complete the oscillation.

Comment: This ascending channel could be viewed as an extended pull back to balance after the impulsive move down from 8.5K. Also since ATH, oscillations have become elongated in duration. Ascending channels lead to impulsive downward price action.



Many are now calling the 'alt rally,' but for as long as Bitcoin remains in an ascending channel, it doesn't seem to be a reasonable risk/reward for going long on alts, or even buying the coins, as the bottom could fall out at any moment. If the channel breaks to the downside, perhaps a reasonable shorting opportunity, or if skilled; catching the reversal. (not advice)
Comment: The ascending channel pumped and the price action has moved away from the corrective pattern.

In the charts below I've used a Schiff pitchfork and fib levels




If this pump from an ascending channel can still be viewed as an extended reaction to the previous downtrend, then price should not push through the upper median line of the pitchfork. If it did and sustained price, that would show actual strength and potential breakdown of the bearish trend.

More likely, price will not pass through the upper median line and the next impulsive downtrend will arrive shortly moving in a similar manner to the previous downtrend. If price continues to pump then it could still reach the 0.618 fib ($7495) level without crossing the upper median and there is clearly plenty of time for it to cross the 0.5 fib ($7183).

Also the stochastic RSI is up at around 98. Although it is not big on detail and is a secondary indicator (due to reliance on the past), it can be quite accurate in a corrective phase with uniform price movement. When it crosses back through 80, perhaps the flood gates will open and Bitcoin will head on down to test and break through lows.

The path of least resistance seems likely to find a reversal somewhere between 0.5 and 0.618 fib.
Comment: Testing the 200smma. Will there be a close above to test higher fib levels or is this the top

BTCUSDSHORTS have declined significantly from ATH back similar to in April and come down to re-test the 200smma for the 3rd time since it became support.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VQ39oc...

And BTCUSDLONGS similarly had also been testing the 200smma, but passed through and turned support into resistance. It had 2 candle closes above before rejection. If price is rejected by the 200smma and longs also regress back past the previous low of 24.7K, then perhaps this potential bullish correction is over and Bitcoin will head down to complete the now rather elongated oscillation.

Comment:
Comment: The elevator arrived at $7400 between 0.5 fib ($7183) and 0.618 fib ($7495). The speed at which it just lost $450 would likely suggest a more impulsive phase downward is coming now to test the lows after a long extended choppy ascending channel.

September has arrived. Summer is over.
Comment: For each oscillation the downside is becoming more impulsive. A brief relief rally may ensue after falling off a cliff. Bullish engulfing candle on the daily. But it will likely be brief then BTC down to 5K range. Capitulation September.

Comment: Well it became elongated, but perhaps that concludes the oscillation / dead cat bounce and perhaps now moving into the latter bearish phase
Triple tops and ascending chop. Perhaps this is a flag before the next elevator down to complete the oscillation.

Reply
Ok here goes we'll give you the short version even though we only comment on others work if it's a fraud which yours is obviously not. To be honest three of us looked at this and don't really know why you think you're wrong - you actually come up with almost the same number $5K to $5.5 K as we do - this probably isn't much help but did want to respond. Good luck.
+6 Reply
dRends35 london55555
@london55555, Thanks! :D
Reply
Futures tomorrow after a pull back off the daily 9... postcard answer
Reply
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