Hi, guys! oh my gosh, another meltdown of BTC to below! i have went short at 6430, but sold at 6350. I thought, at least 4 hr ema, 6340~50 will hold for one day! however, the BTC whales are NOT PATIENT.They had grabbed the chance of a bearish divergence, low time frames overbought, so they went right into it! Overall this btc play, seems to be going
all~ the way I have expected though. Remember my potential inverse h&s pattern that my posted few days ago? yes bearish! from that point on,i have studied and worked out how this patter would look like in coming days!
It seems that in terms of patterns, in the big monthly terms BIG BEARISH Head and shoulder pattern is playing out, in the daily
terms a short of falling wedge is starting to get build up, and lastly, potential inverse H&S might form at the same time! So, the mixture of this game is
Big H&S+Falling wedge+potential inverse H&S playing out!
below is the chart i think from now would play out.
so you can see that we have a h&s, falling wedge, and inverse h&s forming altogether. other TA's will say only one pattern, but i think, a mixture of these three are all building up!
i think we are going to see more lows, and in 1~2weeks 5k zone will become normal, and we might trade in this conditions.
however, i definitely think it will dip low 5k levels, and go test the right shoulder of the heavily bearish H&S pattern, at 7.7k.
I think that run will be mid or late September.
so we just play this out!
so today, we visited 5850, which is just above former bottom(5750). guys let me repeat, don't panic! BTC has always rebounded from its previous bottom, even though the bounce is short lived! let's see the low time frames!
this is the 4hr chart. yes, people are buying at this level. our ris/mfi is maintaining a bull divergence, and 1hr also. you can see the 4hr is making a higher high, at every dip, even though its high is coming low. that means, we will likely see a bounce to test rsi 40 level around 6250~63 level, and it would push higher to maybe 63~64 level to make a bigger bear divergence fall more fall in the coming days! yes guys, this is what i always say."At downtrends, a bounce is only to go low!" all they want is to recharge the battery, only to resume the fall!
try to look for a bull div in the next 12~18 hours. right now, i think it is just trying to make a short reversal structure.
Ok, you guys also know that i tell you my investment plans!
ok, every thing is in the chart. at current point, i think there will be a bounce back to 6k, in the next 24 hours, before the daily close. i do not think they will close below 6k level tomorrow or the day after. BUT! This trading plan is almost invalidated if btc closes below 6k, at 57~59 level tomorrow, and the day after. if this happens, the market will be DESTROYED and so is my plan...that would mean something different to look into with more criticism into the market. also, when you open longs try to see if there is a bull divergence in low 1,4hr timeframes, as well as candle patterns if they make some bullish hammers(it helps the bounce). also, try to buy more when it dips, DO NOT ALL IN at once! also, when it bounces do not open shorts right away, i will update when time comes(shorting plan is not an immediate option when it bounces) happy trading!
all~ the way I have expected though. Remember my potential inverse h&s pattern that my posted few days ago? yes bearish! from that point on,i have studied and worked out how this patter would look like in coming days!
It seems that in terms of patterns, in the big monthly terms BIG BEARISH Head and shoulder pattern is playing out, in the daily
terms a short of falling wedge is starting to get build up, and lastly, potential inverse H&S might form at the same time! So, the mixture of this game is
Big H&S+Falling wedge+potential inverse H&S playing out!
below is the chart i think from now would play out.
so you can see that we have a h&s, falling wedge, and inverse h&s forming altogether. other TA's will say only one pattern, but i think, a mixture of these three are all building up!
i think we are going to see more lows, and in 1~2weeks 5k zone will become normal, and we might trade in this conditions.
however, i definitely think it will dip low 5k levels, and go test the right shoulder of the heavily bearish H&S pattern, at 7.7k.
I think that run will be mid or late September.
so we just play this out!
so today, we visited 5850, which is just above former bottom(5750). guys let me repeat, don't panic! BTC has always rebounded from its previous bottom, even though the bounce is short lived! let's see the low time frames!
this is the 4hr chart. yes, people are buying at this level. our ris/mfi is maintaining a bull divergence, and 1hr also. you can see the 4hr is making a higher high, at every dip, even though its high is coming low. that means, we will likely see a bounce to test rsi 40 level around 6250~63 level, and it would push higher to maybe 63~64 level to make a bigger bear divergence fall more fall in the coming days! yes guys, this is what i always say."At downtrends, a bounce is only to go low!" all they want is to recharge the battery, only to resume the fall!
try to look for a bull div in the next 12~18 hours. right now, i think it is just trying to make a short reversal structure.
Ok, you guys also know that i tell you my investment plans!
ok, every thing is in the chart. at current point, i think there will be a bounce back to 6k, in the next 24 hours, before the daily close. i do not think they will close below 6k level tomorrow or the day after. BUT! This trading plan is almost invalidated if btc closes below 6k, at 57~59 level tomorrow, and the day after. if this happens, the market will be DESTROYED and so is my plan...that would mean something different to look into with more criticism into the market. also, when you open longs try to see if there is a bull divergence in low 1,4hr timeframes, as well as candle patterns if they make some bullish hammers(it helps the bounce). also, try to buy more when it dips, DO NOT ALL IN at once! also, when it bounces do not open shorts right away, i will update when time comes(shorting plan is not an immediate option when it bounces) happy trading!
Trade active:
so guys! trading was active when btc hit 5850 hours ago! i bought at 5870! plan to buy more when it dips. I will buy more at 5840/5780, and stop is 5740. but if it dips more, for me, i will maybe buy more at 55 level(this is a risky play and i am not certain yet!).
Comment:
guys! small reversal is coming to 6k but i don't think it is not yet ready for it! however, if you are in, sell some, get cheaper in the coming hours!
Comment:
guys! one more thing! there are people who do not play btc in bitmex, only buying alts at crypto exchanges. for me, my only recommendation at this point is stellar lumen, xlm. it is the ONLY COIN, almost, that is surviving in this btc dominant jungle. so if btc dips severely, and you buy alts(don't recommend this so much..), xlm is good choice. check my other post below about it.
Comment:
just for your help! what i think would happen, but nothing is sure!
Comment:
boom! guys did you get in? a little breakout, not so convincing and bot another low, but my tp1 6150 is accomplished!
Trade closed: target reached:
guys did you sell your longs? you will have more chance tomorrow to get in. you can hold, but retracement might come to lower~mid 6k tomorrow. also did you open shorts at the same time? try to get shorts until 6200, and i think we can sell that at 6070~80 support line and wait for more tomorrow. trade safe!
Comment:
guys! market is crap! okay, this 4hr bear flag might take us all the way down to 5.5k. be careful, i am going long on that spot heavily.
Comment:
guys! i have wrote tons of idea today, but, breaking 6070 support now, seems that this will take us really fast to 5.5k level. this is really fast, and when market is so fast, we must think why. we have a futures conference in 16th. it might to something to the market, that can be good. maybe, just maybe, a run upwards can happen soon then we anticipated. have a good one.
Comment:
i will still hold on to my ideas, but, breaking 6k support just after a run? we must think about what is more possible now. i think there is a chance of course we just go up like what i said, but, this is very serious, this really might break down 5750 and take us to 55. i think that will be our last resort of buying alts, or going long. if, it happens like that.
Comment:
Looks like bulls want to defend 6k for now. Hold on to my ideas~~
Comment:
Guys i was bit emotional yesterday!whales played me.....ok! I stick to my trading ideas. This bounce the top will be 63~64.
Comment:
guys, i do not have much time today. it is a holiday today here in Korea! have lots of stuff to do. anyway, trade plans are:open shorts buy 6240~70/sell 6100~6150(coming hours)-->open long 6070~6130/sell 6280/6360/6420(in 12~18hours or tomorrow)-->open shorts 63.5~64.5(overshooting 64.7~8)+hold do not sell, its for the 5k zone. simple right? best luck!
Comment:
guys! we hit 6280, which was my second tp of the longs. now, it seems that bull have used a LOT of power pushing this up, indicators sign overbought, and bear divergence, so retracement will be in play in some time. so, SELL when you can and take profit! it is still playing inside a downtrend tunnel, and it looks like it might not have a chance to reach 63,64 level today.
Trade active:
It is the in the 63level! Yes start to open short positions small portions from high 63 to 64 level and also open 65 and maybe 66.that would be the top of this game and we are going to nail it sell it at low 6k or even 5k level zone.