On June 11 in the 106th daily update I said that the price of Bitcoin was oversold and said that it is very important not to chase after a move of 10% in less than 24 hours. That was primarily based on how far we had fallen below the 12 period EMA (teal) on the 4 hour and 1 day chart.
I said we would either get a bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or see days of consolidation. The latter option was the most bearish option that I saw. It tells me that the market does not have enough demand to create a short term rally. Bears are lining up at each point of resistance and they are winning.
Let’s take a look at the 15 minute chart.
As you can tell the bears seem to be in full control. Steadily breaking down areas of support and strongly holding the areas of resistance. Currently the major area of resistance is $6,500 (white line) and the major area of support is $6,375.
Over the past 5 days the price has consolidated into a triangle (orange) and is currently resisting the 12 period MA on the 4 hour chart. I would still like to see a retest of the 12 day MA before feeling comfortable that the price has returned to equilibrium.
As you can see there is still quite a bit of room between the price and the EMA. This could allow for whales to create a bear trap. I expect a lot of traders have their stop loss set above $6,555 (white line) and/or right above the triangle.
A pump to $6,700 would trigger those stops and also retest the 12 day MA, which I expect to act as strong resistance.
If not in a position then there are some good options still on the table. Keep in mind that these prices are taken from Bitstamp and would need to be adjusted for your exchange.
SEE BELOW!
I said we would either get a bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or see days of consolidation. The latter option was the most bearish option that I saw. It tells me that the market does not have enough demand to create a short term rally. Bears are lining up at each point of resistance and they are winning.
Let’s take a look at the 15 minute chart.
As you can tell the bears seem to be in full control. Steadily breaking down areas of support and strongly holding the areas of resistance. Currently the major area of resistance is $6,500 (white line) and the major area of support is $6,375.
Over the past 5 days the price has consolidated into a triangle (orange) and is currently resisting the 12 period MA on the 4 hour chart. I would still like to see a retest of the 12 day MA before feeling comfortable that the price has returned to equilibrium.
As you can see there is still quite a bit of room between the price and the EMA. This could allow for whales to create a bear trap. I expect a lot of traders have their stop loss set above $6,555 (white line) and/or right above the triangle.
A pump to $6,700 would trigger those stops and also retest the 12 day MA, which I expect to act as strong resistance.
If not in a position then there are some good options still on the table. Keep in mind that these prices are taken from Bitstamp and would need to be adjusted for your exchange.
SEE BELOW!
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