BTCUSD
On December 18, 2019 Bitcoin started a new impulse wave higher from around $6,400 USD to around $10,500 USD, a move that lasted 57 days. The move broke the previous multi-month down channel, indicating that a new multi-month up-move had started.
As you can clearly see on the chart, you can count 5 impulse-wave higher from the lows to the highs, with the last wave forming a Rising Wedge formation, www.freeonlinetradin...om/rising-wedge.html , which is bearish. And now that Rising Wedge has broken to the downside, indicating that the correction had started.
Since the up-move lasted 57 days, I would expect the corrective wave of that up-move would last the same amount of time. Of-course it can be longer or shorter, but the same amount of time is also common. That will put the end of the correction at around April 10, 2020.
As for the target, the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the most common level, would place Bitcoin at $7,972 USD. Another possible level would be the 78.6% Fibonacci level, which would place Bitcoin at around $7,300 USD, which would also make the ideal target for a perfect Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern,
I certainly don´t know which level it will go or how long would it take, but I expect several weeks and several thousand dollars of consolidation on Bitcoin before the up-move resumes.
Invalidation level would be the February highs we reach a few days ago.
There are many forms the coming consolidation could take, but a common one would be a ABC Zigzag Correction, elliottwave-forecast...elliott-wave-theory/ , with waves A and C subdividing into 5 smaller waves to the downside.
Also, if you look at the RSI indicator, it has been overbought for almost two weeks, that should take at least a few weeks to correct itself, which means some consolidation going forward at some point.
Personally, I’m looking for a small bounce to the 10K level in the next couple of days to add to my short position, with a stop at $10,600 USD. Not a recommendation, just what I’m doing.
As for the Altcoins, I just don’t know, it looks like they also bottom on December with Bitcoin, at least the big ones, but if Bitcoin goes down, I will expect them to go down as well and vice versa. Too volatile for me to dare to trade them to the downside.
Good Luck to You
Comment:
On a short-term basis, Bitcoin made a 5 wave move from about $10,500 USD to about $9,467 USD, a move that I will call Wave 1 of A on the ongoing correction. And now it made a 3 wave move from about $9,467 USD to about $10,068 USD. That move has retraced more than 50% of Wave 1, just shy of the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level. So, it is possible that the up move has finished.
However, it is also possible that the current up move from $9,467 USD may extend higher.
I’m shorting here just above $10,000 USD with a stop at $10,600. Not a recommendation, just what I’m doing. I’m using my Bybit account to do so: www.bybit.com/app/register?ref=OEykL
If we go above the February 13 highs of about $10,500 USD this wave count would be invalid, and instead suggest we may be going a lot higher.
Here is the chart:
Good Luck in Your Decisions
However, it is also possible that the current up move from $9,467 USD may extend higher.
I’m shorting here just above $10,000 USD with a stop at $10,600. Not a recommendation, just what I’m doing. I’m using my Bybit account to do so: www.bybit.com/app/register?ref=OEykL
If we go above the February 13 highs of about $10,500 USD this wave count would be invalid, and instead suggest we may be going a lot higher.
Here is the chart:
Good Luck in Your Decisions
Comment:
Just for the record, the GAP that I mention before has been completely filled today.
Trade closed manually:
I'm taking profits here at $8,670. But I will be looking to reopen shorts above $9,000.
Good Luck to You
Good Luck to You
In a more smaller scale Bitcoin seems to have completed a small 5-wave to the downside, from about $10,500 to about $9467 USD in a 5-day period. I will call this move Minuette Wave 1, of Minute Wave A, of Minor Wave 2, which is correction Minor Wave 1 from $6,400 USD to $10,500 USD.
I will expect Minuette Wave 2 to follow this move, to the upside. It will need to climb to about $10,300 USD to close the GAP, which lies with the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level. Although there are more conservative at $10,000 USD (50% Fibonacci Level) and $10,100 USD (61.8 Fibonacci Level). Now, since wave 1 took almost 5 days I will expect wave 2 to take also several days to complete. That will make room for a nice short-term swing trade. But it should not go above $10,500 USD.
Good Luck to You