BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 46)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Over the past couple days we have been on red alert for breaking the cursed bear trend (red line). The first step was to support above $7,500 after the massive rally from yesterday. The second step was to bust through the trend line on large volume . The third step is to find support above the trend line .

We did see good volume on the breakout, however the price pulled back soon afterwards. That is generally a sign of strong resistance and could be an indication of an upcoming retracement.

This is also the fourth test of the bear trend and that is usually when it is the most dangerous for the bulls. So far we have found support above the 200 day SMA , but it remains to be seen how long that will last.

If it falls through then we absolutely have to hold above $7,500. If that doesn’t happen then I would have to quickly change my bullish tune.

On the other hand if the bulls are able to hold then it will be time to start looking to enter a leveraged long. Be patient. I patient!

If we do break the bear trend and enter another bull market then there will be dozens of entries teed up on a silver platter. On the other hand if you are anxious about getting entered ASAP then you will get rekt before the gravy train starts rolling.

I realize that my analysis is more wishy-washy than normal, and that is because we are at such a critical spot. Longing this close to the upper end of the longer term bear trend is not worth the risk. On the other hand, we have seen enough bullish sentiment in the last couple days to make a short sale out of the question in my book.

Happy trading and remember that following is free!
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